Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar – 16 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 16 · 20:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Sunderland

1–0Full time

AZ Alkmaar

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sunderland were slight favourites.

Sunderland were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AZ Alkmaar. Sunderland had 4 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 5 and had to travel 475 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel475 kmRest days4 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sunderland48%

Draw24%

AZ Alkmaar28%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.26

Sunderland50%

Draw25%

AZ Alkmaar25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Sunderland49%

Draw24%

AZ Alkmaar28%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.25

Sunderland41%

Draw25%

AZ Alkmaar35%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.41

Sunderland49%

Draw24%

AZ Alkmaar27%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.23

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sunderland)

15°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 66%

Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 104

Team strength

Sunderland

AZ Alkmaar

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

62 AttackIn forecast 52

59 DefenceIn forecast 49

53 Form indexContext 80

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sunderland

AZ Alkmaar

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 2.19

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.60 ShotsContext 18.40

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.40

33% On target shareContext 35%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

67% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.88

11.80 Shots allowedContext 9.90

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.40 BlocksContext 3.25

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

58% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 57%

407 PassesContext 507

335 Accurate passesContext 435

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.20 FoulsContext 10.20

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 0.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland LWDL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km774 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 53 · 4 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

L12 SepH · Arsenal0–20.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Brentford1–10.8 xPts
W30 AugH · Fulham1–01.4 xPts
L22 AugA · Ipswich1–21.4 xPts

AZ Alkmaar WWWWD

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel475 km173 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 80 · 13 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +3.1 vs expected

D11 SepH · Willem II1–12.7 xPts
W6 SepA · Heerenveen3–21.9 xPts
W29 AugH · GO Ahead Eagles5–22.3 xPts
W22 AugA · Fortuna Sittard2–01.8 xPts
W15 AugA · Utrecht4–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sunderland	AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep	5Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	475 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	774 km	173 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 4K. Danso 20N. Mukiele

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka

39M. Fofana 28E. Le Fée 32T. Hume

18W. Isidor

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

28J. De Busser(G)

5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie

11Ro-Zangelo Daal 10K. Smit 24A. Oufkir

9M. Meerdink

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sunderland Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sunderland-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AZ Alkmaar+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home No home games yet this season.

AZ Alkmaar · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Sunderland	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.98
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Sunderland	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.30
Conceded per game	1.70	1.20
Match goals	2.90	3.50	2.98
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sunderland	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Sunderland	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.60
Corners conceded	4.10	4.10
Match total	8.10	11.70	13.50
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	0.70
Opponent cards	2.40	1.20
Match total	5.00	1.90	2.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 104 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.30league 2.00

Red cards0.30league 0.00

Cards 5+52%league 0%

Fouls22.5league 25.0

Penalties0.37league 0.00

Home wins43%league 50%

Sunderland

No previous matches with this referee.

AZ Alkmaar

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.