Sunderland vs Fulham – 30 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 14:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Sunderland 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–0Full time

Fulham 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Fulham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Sunderland had 8 days of rest, Fulham 5.8 and had to travel 387 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel387 kmRest days8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sunderland39%

Draw25%

Fulham36%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.38

Sunderland37%

Draw26%

Fulham37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.34

Sunderland38%

Draw25%

Fulham36%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.39

Sunderland32%

Draw25%

Fulham44%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.55

Sunderland39%

Draw25%

Fulham36%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.36

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sunderland)

20°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 66%

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 88

Team strength

Sunderland

Fulham

57 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

62 AttackIn forecast 66

59 DefenceIn forecast 68

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sunderland

Fulham

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.20 ShotsContext 14.20

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

33% On target shareContext 26%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

65% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 6%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.30 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.00 BlocksContext 3.56

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

67% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 53%

410 PassesContext 480

336 Accurate passesContext 405

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.50 FoulsContext 10.40

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland L

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km716 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 39 · 0 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L22 AugA · Ipswich1–21.4 xPts

Fulham L

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel387 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 40 · 0 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L24 AugH · Chelsea2–31.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sunderland	Fulham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug	5.8Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	387 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	716 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 5D. Ballard 20N. Mukiele 12T. Meunier

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka

10N. Angulo 28E. Le Fée 32T. Hume

9B. Brobbey

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

33A. Robinson 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 21T. Castagne

17A. Iwobi 16S. Berge

8César Palacios 24J. King 14O. Bobb

7Gonzalo García

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sunderland Absences are shown before kick-off

Fulham Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sunderland+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fulham-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home No home games yet this season.

Fulham · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Sunderland wins0 draws2 Fulham wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

22 Feb 2026Sunderland1–3Fulham
22 Nov 2025Fulham1–0Sunderland

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sunderland	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	3.00
Match goals	3.00	5.00	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Sunderland	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	2.90	2.00	2.82
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sunderland	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.00
Corners conceded	3.00	4.00
Match total	8.00	10.00	9.50
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	0.00	3.00
Match total	3.00	5.00	4.07
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Sunderland	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	5.70
Corners conceded	4.90	4.90
Match total	9.30	10.60	9.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	1.60
Match total	5.10	3.40	4.07
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 88 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.64league 3.80

Red cards0.19league 0.07

Cards 5+36%league 40%

Fouls22.2league 23.5

Penalties0.28league 0.20

Home wins50%league 47%

Sunderland2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L23 Aug 25A · Burnley0–21
W29 Dec 22A · Wigan4–11

Fulham4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds1

W27 Nov 23H · Wolves3–22
D29 Oct 23A · Brighton1–13
W16 Sep 23H · Luton1–02
W30 Oct 21H · West Brom3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.