Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. Telstar had 15.9 days of rest, Ajax 14 and had to travel 19 km.
Away travel19 kmRest days15.9 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Telstar29%
Draw24%
Ajax47%
Telstar30%
Draw26%
Ajax44%
Telstar28%
Draw24%
Ajax48%
Telstar22%
Draw22%
Ajax55%
Telstar29%
Draw24%
Ajax47%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 48
Team strength
Telstar
Ajax
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
24
AttackIn forecast
66
13
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarAjax
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
2.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
7.50
ShotsContext
24.50
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
27%
On target shareContext
20%
—
Shots in the boxContext
14.50
—
Box shareContext
60%
20%
ConversionContext
8%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
21.50
Shots allowedContext
10.50
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
7.00
BlocksContext
3.00
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
69%
Save rateContext
80%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
368
PassesContext
533
292
Accurate passesContext
475
79%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.08
13.50
FoulsContext
9.00
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.80
ShotsContext
15.00
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
41%
On target shareContext
31%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
69%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.25
16.40
Shots allowedContext
12.50
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.78
BlocksContext
4.10
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
74%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
364
PassesContext
498
283
Accurate passesContext
426
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.10
FoulsContext
9.90
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
WL
Rest15.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 3 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 14 Aug | 14Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 19 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
16S. Valk
2J. Hardeveld
10T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
3G. Alders
27P. Brouwer
7Rui Mendes
9Jelani Seedorf
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1M. ter Stegen(G)
12Caio Henrique
36D. Janse
30A. Bouwman
3A. Gaaei
8J. Brandt
24J. Mokio
18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh
99T. Arokodare
23S. Berghuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Ajax-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Ajax · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Telstar wins0 draws2 Ajax wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 11 Jan 2026Telstar2–3Ajax
- 10 Aug 2025Ajax2–0Telstar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Telstar | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.70 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 10.50 | 11.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.50 | 2.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Telstar | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.25 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 10.11 | 11.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.94league 2.32
Red cards0.23league 0.06
Cards 5+27%league 13%
Fouls22.0league 20.5
Penalties0.19league 0.23
Home wins44%league 32%
Telstar2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Feb 26A · GO Ahead Eagles1–10
- L19 Oct 25H · Heerenveen2–31
Ajax7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D16 Mar 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–22
- W9 Feb 25A · Fortuna Sittard2–03
- L18 Aug 24A · NAC Breda1–21
- W27 Jan 24A · Heracles4–21
- W25 Nov 23H · Vitesse5–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar2 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
Ajax2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
