Telstar
Attack−28%
Defense risk+42%
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Feyenoord. Feyenoord were without J. Bos. Telstar had 6.2 days of rest, Feyenoord 3.1 and had to travel 61 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel61 kmRest days6.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Telstar17%
Draw19%
Feyenoord64%
Telstar22%
Draw25%
Feyenoord53%
Telstar16%
Draw19%
Feyenoord65%
Telstar12%
Draw16%
Feyenoord72%
Telstar17%
Draw20%
Feyenoord63%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–2
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
11°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 69%
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 60
Team strength
Telstar
Feyenoord
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
24
AttackIn forecast
76
13
DefenceIn forecast
61
12
Form indexContext
86
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack+13%
Defense risk−14%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
TelstarFeyenoord
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.38
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
2.71
2.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
50%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.75
ShotsContext
21.25
2.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.88
22%
On target shareContext
37%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
14.63
64%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.13
Shots allowedContext
9.75
6.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
5.00
BlocksContext
2.71
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
75%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
389
PassesContext
495
309
Accurate passesContext
431
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.67
Team ratingContext
7.26
10.25
FoulsContext
9.13
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
2.36
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.50
ShotsContext
18.70
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
27%
On target shareContext
37%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.70
66%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.86
15.10
Shots allowedContext
11.30
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.67
BlocksContext
3.00
4.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
77%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
371
PassesContext
479
290
Accurate passesContext
415
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.10
11.20
FoulsContext
10.40
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
DLDLD
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 12 · 3 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected
Feyenoord
LWWWW
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel61 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 86 · 12 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 3.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 61 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
16S. Valk
3G. Alders
17N. Rossen
10T. Owusu
23N. Shenkman
27P. Brouwer
11N. Þórisson
42A. Martha
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
1T. Ernst(G)
35Mika Màrmol
24T. Kraaijeveld
4T. Watanabe
26G. Read
34C. Vanhoutte
8G. Zechiël
27G. Diarra
14S. Steijn
23A. Hadj Moussa
19Nacho Ferri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
No reported absences
Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −2.8% · Defence line −11.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Bos Starter 7.03 Def −7.2%
- MID J. Moder Rotation 6.84 Att −2.2% Def −1.4%
- DEF G. Smal Rotation 6.79 Def −2.0%
- DEF B. Nieuwkoop Rotation 6.61 Def −0.8%
- ATT Shaqueel van Persie Depth 6.69 Att −0.4%
- ATT R. Nelson Depth 6.57 Att −0.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Feyenoord-0.7 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.75
Feyenoord · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Cambuur | D 2–2 H | W 5–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Telstar wins0 draws2 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 22 Feb 2026Feyenoord2–1Telstar
- 30 Nov 2025Telstar1–2Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 3.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 4.25 | 3.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 75% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Telstar | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 3.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 4.50 | 3.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.57 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.57 | 10.00 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 0.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.13 | 2.38 | 2.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Telstar | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.63 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.76 | 9.10 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.60 | 2.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.28league 2.68
Red cards0.13league 0.07
Cards 5+28%league 12%
Fouls19.4league 21.3
Penalties0.25league 0.23
Home wins42%league 32%
Telstar2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D2 May 26A · NEC Nijmegen1–12
- L11 Jan 26H · Ajax2–32
Feyenoord8 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Mar 26A · NAC Breda3–34
- W5 Oct 25H · Utrecht3–22
- L18 May 25A · Heerenveen0–21
- W5 Apr 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–02
- W22 Feb 25H · Almere City FC2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar8 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Feyenoord8 games · scored 27 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
4
16-30
7
31-45
4
2
46-60
7
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 31 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
7
31-45
5
3
46-60
7
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
