Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Telstar were slight favourites.
Telstar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 16). Telstar had 14.9 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 14.2 and had to travel 183 km.
Away travel183 kmRest days14.9 · 14.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Telstar55%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard21%
Telstar55%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard20%
Telstar55%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard21%
Telstar47%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard27%
Telstar55%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard20%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 8
Team strength
Telstar
Fortuna Sittard
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
24
AttackIn forecast
19
13
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarFortuna Sittard
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
50%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.00
ShotsContext
18.67
5.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
41%
On target shareContext
30%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
67%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.67
OffsidesContext
—
14.50
Shots allowedContext
11.67
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.75
BlocksContext
3.33
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
359
PassesContext
429
290
Accurate passesContext
346
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.50
FoulsContext
13.67
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.33
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
67%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.70
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
39%
On target shareContext
27%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
67%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.33
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
5.00
BlocksContext
3.22
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
77%
Save rateContext
69%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
328
PassesContext
372
256
Accurate passesContext
296
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.00
FoulsContext
12.60
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel183 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 14.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 183 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
21D. Koswal
4G. Offerhaus
6D. Bakker
11T. Noslin
8T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
2J. Hardeveld
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
27P. Brouwer
7S. Hetli
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
23P. Brittijn
44Iván Márquez
8J. Dahlhaus
18D. Limnios
77L. Tunjić
17J. Lonwijk
80R. Fosso
7K. Peterson
52M. Ihattaren
19P. Gladon
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| Telstar | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 13.67 | 9.66 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.75 | 5.00 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Telstar | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 9.80 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 3.10 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.52
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 38%
Fouls27.3league 22.7
Penalties0.38league 0.17
Home wins38%league 48%
TelstarNo previous matches with this referee.
Fortuna Sittard1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 May 25H · Utrecht0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar4 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Fortuna Sittard3 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Telstar6 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
