Telstar vs Groningen – 4 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Apr 4 · 17:45 BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Telstar 14th · 27 pts · 28 played LWWLW

First leg0–2 0–2Full time

Groningen 10th · 38 pts · 28 played LLWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Telstar were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Groningen. Telstar had 13 days of rest, Groningen 13 and had to travel 154 km.

Away travel154 kmRest days13 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1

Telstar44%

Draw23%

Groningen33%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.59

Telstar43%

Draw27%

Groningen30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Telstar45%

Draw23%

Groningen32%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.58

Telstar36%

Draw23%

Groningen41%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.79

Telstar44%

Draw24%

Groningen32%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.54

Over 2.5 67% Both score 68% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 34

Team strength

Telstar

Groningen

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

24 AttackIn forecast 41

13 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Telstar

Groningen

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

1.64 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

75% Scored inContext 79%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

12.64 ShotsContext 15.07

4.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.89

38% On target shareContext 38%

8.12 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

62% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.87

15.61 Shots allowedContext 11.04

6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

4.65 BlocksContext 2.96

4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.08

72% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 51%

360 PassesContext 412

279 Accurate passesContext 330

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.18 FoulsContext 10.54

10.18 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86

1.21 Yellow cardsContext 1.64

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 14.20

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

43% On target shareContext 34%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.44

62% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.78

15.80 Shots allowedContext 11.90

6.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

4.44 BlocksContext 3.60

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

73% Save rateContext 71%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

371 PassesContext 403

285 Accurate passesContext 319

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.80 FoulsContext 10.60

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.10

0.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Groningen

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel154 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Telstar	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Mar	13Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	154 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 21D. Koswal 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 4G. Offerhaus 23C. Hatenboer 27P. Brouwer

8T. Owusu 37Sem van Duijn

19N. Þórisson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

18T. Land 8T. de Jonge

14J. Schreuders 17D. van der Werff 10Y. Taha

26T. van Bergen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Telstar Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Groningen Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Telstar-1.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Groningen+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home 1.00points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 3-5-6
Scored: 1.71
Conceded: 1.79

Groningen · Away 1.21points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 5-2-7
Scored: 1.21
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Telstar	Groningen
PSV Eindhoven	W 3–1 HW 2–0 A	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A
Heerenveen	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 4–1 AL 1–3 H	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
NAC Breda	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
Feyenoord	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
Twente	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 AW 4–2 H	D 1–1 A
PEC Zwolle	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	W 3–0 HL 1–4 A
Excelsior	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Ajax	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
Heracles	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 H
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H
FC Volendam	D 2–2 H	L 2–3 AW 3–0 H
Points	27 of 81 · 1.00 per game	35 of 81 · 1.30 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Telstar wins0 draws1 Groningen wins

Goals per game0.00 – 2.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

20 Sep 2025Groningen2–0Telstar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Telstar	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	1.43
Conceded per game	1.64	1.32
Match goals	3.00	2.75	3.46
Over 1.5	86%	89%
Over 2.5	57%	54%	67%
Over 3.5	39%	21%
Both teams scored	64%	54%	68%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	25%	21%
Games	28	28

	Telstar	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.50
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	3.20	3.00	3.46
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	67%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	68%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Telstar	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.74	5.96
Corners conceded	6.15	4.74
Match total	10.89	10.70	10.27
Over 8.5	78% 21/27	74% 20/27
Over 9.5	63% 17/27	48% 13/27
Over 10.5	56% 15/27	41% 11/27
Cards
Cards	1.29	1.71
Opponent cards	1.79	1.57
Match total	3.08	3.28	3.38
Over 3.5	32% 9/28	43% 12/28
Over 4.5	25% 7/28	21% 6/28

	Telstar	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	6.40
Corners conceded	5.80	5.50
Match total	10.20	11.90	10.27
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	0.70	1.80
Opponent cards	1.80	1.00
Match total	2.50	2.80	3.38
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 34 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.21

Red cards0.06league 0.17

Cards 5+29%league 27%

Fouls23.3league 21.3

Penalties0.15league 0.24

Home wins47%league 45%

Telstar1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L10 Aug 25A · Ajax0–20

Groningen1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W3 Oct 25A · NAC Breda2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.