Telstar vs Heracles – 10 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 10 · 15:45 BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Telstar 15th · 31 pts · 32 played WLLWD

First leg1–1 3–0Full time

Heracles 18th · 19 pts · 32 played DLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Telstar were clear favourites.

Telstar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 10). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Telstar. Telstar had 7.8 days of rest, Heracles 7.1 and had to travel 137 km.

Away travel137 kmRest days7.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Telstar68%

Draw19%

Heracles13%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.97

Telstar61%

Draw23%

Heracles17%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.92

Telstar68%

Draw19%

Heracles13%

Expected goals 2.37 – 0.97

Telstar61%

Draw21%

Heracles18%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.09

Telstar68%

Draw19%

Heracles13%

Expected goals 2.35 – 0.96

Over 2.5 65% Both score 57% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 103

Team strength

Telstar

Heracles

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 10

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 9

24 AttackIn forecast 7

13 DefenceIn forecast 10

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Telstar

Heracles

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06

1.69 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.90

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

75% Scored inContext 53%

13% Clean sheetsContext 6%

12.47 ShotsContext 10.63

4.84 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

38% On target shareContext 34%

8.07 Shots in the boxContext 7.06

63% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.23 OffsidesContext 1.77

15.84 Shots allowedContext 16.50

6.35 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.69

4.63 BlocksContext 4.90

4.58 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.19

72% Save rateContext 63%

45% PossessionIn forecast 44%

360 PassesContext 339

279 Accurate passesContext 262

78% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.03 FoulsContext 13.00

9.97 Fouls sufferedContext 11.34

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.94

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.01

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.66

80% Scored inContext 30%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.40 ShotsContext 11.20

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

45% On target shareContext 27%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

70% Box shareContext 59%

15% ConversionContext 3%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.86

16.50 Shots allowedContext 15.50

7.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80

5.00 BlocksContext 3.90

5.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.70

72% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 47%

384 PassesContext 354

302 Accurate passesContext 278

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.62

10.80 FoulsContext 13.80

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km214 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heracles

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel137 km84 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Telstar	Heracles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 May	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	137 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	214 km	84 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 21D. Koswal 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 23C. Hatenboer 4G. Offerhaus 11T. Noslin

27P. Brouwer 7S. Hetli

37Sem van Duijn

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16T. Jansink(G)

5D. van der Kust 4D. Mirani 23M. te Wierik 2M. Benita

20Rhys Bozinovski 13J. Žambůrek

8M. Engels 73W. Ould-Chikh 17T. van Gilst

19L. Kulenović

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Telstar Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Heracles Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Telstar+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Heracles-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home 1.06points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-7
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.75

Heracles · Away 0.25points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-14
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Telstar	Heracles
NEC Nijmegen	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	L 1–4 AL 1–4 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 4–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H
Utrecht	L 1–4 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–4 A
Groningen	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A	L 0–4 A
PSV Eindhoven	W 3–1 HW 2–0 A	L 1–3 HL 3–4 A
Heerenveen	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	L 1–4 AL 0–3 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 4–1 AL 1–3 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
NAC Breda	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Feyenoord	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	L 2–4 AL 0–7 H
Twente	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 AW 4–2 H	L 0–4 AW 4–2 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 AW 8–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–4 AL 1–2 H
Excelsior	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Ajax	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A
FC Volendam	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 HL 0–3 A
Points	30 of 93 · 0.97 per game	18 of 93 · 0.58 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Telstar wins1 draws0 Heracles wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

6 Dec 2025Heracles1–1Telstar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Telstar	Heracles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.06
Conceded per game	1.69	2.50
Match goals	3.06	3.56	3.35
Over 1.5	88%	91%
Over 2.5	56%	69%	65%
Over 3.5	41%	41%
Both teams scored	66%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	13%	6%
Failed to score	25%	47%
Games	32	32

	Telstar	Heracles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.30
Conceded per game	1.60	2.30
Match goals	3.40	2.60	3.35
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	70%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Telstar	Heracles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.73	4.16
Corners conceded	6.33	6.00
Match total	11.06	10.16	10.29
Over 8.5	80% 24/30	66% 21/32
Over 9.5	67% 20/30	44% 14/32
Over 10.5	57% 17/30	34% 11/32
Cards
Cards	1.28	2.03
Opponent cards	1.78	1.63
Match total	3.06	3.66	3.31
Over 3.5	31% 10/32	44% 14/32
Over 4.5	25% 8/32	28% 9/32

	Telstar	Heracles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	4.00
Corners conceded	6.56	5.50
Match total	10.67	9.50	10.29
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	0.80
Match total	3.00	2.80	3.31
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 103 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.99league 3.13

Red cards0.11league 0.18

Cards 5+43%league 26%

Fouls23.0league 21.2

Penalties0.28league 0.21

Home wins49%league 44%

Telstar3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W27 Feb 26H · NAC Breda3–01
L5 Oct 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–22
L15 Aug 25H · PEC Zwolle0–23

Heracles7 with this referee

Record2-1-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L22 Feb 26A · GO Ahead Eagles0–43
L25 Jan 26A · Feyenoord2–42
W27 Sep 25H · Sparta Rotterdam3–02
W13 Apr 25H · AZ Alkmaar1–02
D11 Jan 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.