Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Telstar were slight favourites.
Telstar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Telstar. Telstar had 6.1 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 5.3 and had to travel 61 km.
Away travel61 kmRest days6.1 · 5.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Telstar59%
Draw22%
Sparta Rotterdam20%
Telstar53%
Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Telstar59%
Draw22%
Sparta Rotterdam20%
Telstar51%
Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam25%
Telstar59%
Draw21%
Sparta Rotterdam19%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 32
Team strength
Telstar
Sparta Rotterdam
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
24
AttackIn forecast
32
13
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarSparta Rotterdam
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.70
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
45%
On target shareContext
26%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
73%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
6%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.50
16.70
Shots allowedContext
16.40
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
5.33
BlocksContext
3.80
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
75%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
340
PassesContext
375
260
Accurate passesContext
304
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.50
FoulsContext
11.00
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
W
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km214 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 3 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
- W8 AugA · NEC Nijmegen2–10.8 xPts
Sparta Rotterdam
L
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel61 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 0 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
- L9 AugH · Feyenoord0–10.9 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Aug | 5.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 61 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 214 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
2J. Hardeveld
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
18G. Caschili
10T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
11S. Hetli
27P. Brouwer
7Rui Mendes
9Jelani Seedorf
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1F. Bednarek(G)
5B. Kuipers
4N. Verschuren
3M. Young
2Lushendry Edward Martes
8J. Toornstra
6J. Baas
11A. Santos
10S. Mito
7C. Terho
9N. Þórisson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
No home games yet this season.
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Telstar wins0 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 22 Apr 2026Telstar4–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 25 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–0Telstar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Telstar | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.90 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 13.00 | 10.00 | |
| Match total | 16.00 | 15.00 | 12.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Telstar | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 11.88 | 10.40 | 12.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.03league 2.56
Red cards0.19league 0.11
Cards 5+31%league 11%
Fouls21.3league 20.6
Penalties0.25league 0.00
Home wins47%league 44%
Telstar1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Sep 25H · GO Ahead Eagles4–22
Sparta Rotterdam4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L29 Nov 25A · NEC Nijmegen1–34
- W29 Mar 25A · Fortuna Sittard3–01
- L30 Nov 24A · PEC Zwolle0–12
- D22 Oct 23A · GO Ahead Eagles0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar1 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 8 · conceded 21
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
