The New Saints
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 14 · 18:30
Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry / Croesoswallt, Shropshire
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Rest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
The New Saints—%
Draw—%
Sabah FA—%
Weather (Oswestry / Croesoswallt, Shropshire)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 40
Team strength
The New Saints
Sabah FA
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
3
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
3
AttackIn forecast
30
3
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSabah FA
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
The New SaintsSabah FA
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
—
2.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
—
40%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.50
ShotsContext
—
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
33%
On target shareContext
50%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
—
59%
Box shareContext
—
10%
ConversionContext
0%
—
OffsidesContext
—
20.17
Shots allowedContext
—
7.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
6.67
BlocksContext
—
5.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
72%
Save rateContext
50%
35%
PossessionIn forecast
—
348
PassesContext
—
273
Accurate passesContext
—
78%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.94
Team ratingContext
—
9.67
FoulsContext
—
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
The New Saints
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sabah FA
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| The New Saints |
Sabah FA |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 7 Jul | 7.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 7 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
The New Saints
Confirmed XI
1N. Shepperd(G)
10D. Redmond
6J. Bodenham
16D. Simeu
14D. Williams
20R. Hughes
4D. Corness
15E. Farrell
21L. Smith
8R. Brobbel
17J. Williams
Sabah FA
Confirmed XI
92S. Pokatilov(G)
27T. Puchacz
5R. Daşdəmirov
33Erivaldo Almeida
80A. Zedadka
13I. Lepinjica
7U. Rahmonaliyev
19A. Malouda
10A. Isaev
21V. Simić
20J. Mickels
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences The New Saints
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sabah FA
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
The New Saints · Home
No home games yet this season.
Sabah FA · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 The New Saints wins0 draws1 Sabah FA wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 7 Jul 2026Sabah FA2–0The New Saints
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| The New Saints | Sabah FA | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| The New Saints | Sabah FA | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| The New Saints | Sabah FA | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 6.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 8.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| The New Saints | Sabah FA | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 11.00 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 14.00 | 6.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 8.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.45league 4.47
Red cards0.38league 0.32
Cards 5+70%league 37%
Fouls24.3league 18.0
Penalties0.30league 0.53
Home wins40%league 42%
The New SaintsNo previous matches with this referee.
Sabah FANo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
The New Saints1 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Sabah FA1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
The New Saints10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
46-60
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Sabah FA10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.