Torino vs Fiorentina – 31 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 31 · 17:30 Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino

Torino 20th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–0Full time

Fiorentina 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 38). Torino had 5.9 days of rest, Fiorentina 7 and had to travel 317 km.

Away travel317 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Torino31%

Draw29%

Fiorentina40%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.31

Torino32%

Draw27%

Fiorentina41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

Torino31%

Draw29%

Fiorentina40%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.31

Torino25%

Draw28%

Fiorentina47%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.47

Torino32%

Draw27%

Fiorentina41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 42

Team strength

Torino

Fiorentina

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

39 AttackIn forecast 42

47 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Torino

Fiorentina

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

-0.44 Goals minus xGContext +0.52

40% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.00 ShotsContext 12.90

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

29% On target shareContext 37%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

60% Box shareContext 63%

5% ConversionContext 15%

1.38 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.60 Shots allowedContext 13.70

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.78 BlocksContext 4.13

4.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

75% Save rateContext 67%

47% PossessionIn forecast 55%

388 PassesContext 479

321 Accurate passesContext 407

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.60 FoulsContext 11.90

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Torino

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km251 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel317 km1,072 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Torino	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Aug	7Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	317 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	251 km	1,072 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	13.8	13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Torino Confirmed XI

4-3-3

81F. Israel(G)

34C. Biraghi 13G. Maripán 23Saúl Coco 16M. Pedersen

8I. Ilić 32K. Asllani 22C. Casadei

10N. Vlašić 18G. Simeone 26C. Ngonge

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

43David de Gea(G)

6L. Ranieri 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo

21R. Gosens 7S. Sohm 8R. Mandragora 2Dodô

10A. Guðmundsson

20M. Kean 91R. Piccoli

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Torino Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Torino+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fiorentina+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Torino · Home No home games yet this season.

Fiorentina · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Torino wins3 draws3 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.75 Over 2.525% Both scored38% Clean sheets38% · 38%

19 Jan 2025Fiorentina1–1Torino
3 Nov 2024Torino0–1Fiorentina
2 Mar 2024Torino0–0Fiorentina
29 Dec 2023Fiorentina1–0Torino
21 May 2023Torino1–1Fiorentina
21 Jan 2023Fiorentina0–1Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Torino	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	5.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	2.44
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	44%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Torino	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	5.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	2.44
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	44%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Torino	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	2.00
Corners conceded	6.00	3.00
Match total	11.00	5.00	8.21
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	2.00
Opponent cards	0.00	4.00
Match total	0.00	6.00	3.86
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Torino	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.50
Corners conceded	4.00	4.40
Match total	8.60	8.90	8.21
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	3.00
Opponent cards	1.20	2.30
Match total	3.00	5.30	3.86
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.38league 3.75

Red cards0.29league 0.13

Cards 5+52%league 44%

Fouls24.8league 24.7

Penalties0.40league 0.13

Home wins29%league 44%

Torino4 with this referee

Record1-3-0 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 3

D24 Nov 24H · Monza1–11
W30 Oct 22H · AC Milan2–15
D27 Apr 22A · Atalanta4–42
D23 Sep 21H · Lazio1–13

Fiorentina3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L6 Jan 24A · Sassuolo0–12
W19 Mar 23H · Lecce1–01
W16 Apr 22H · Venezia1–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.