Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Torino. Torino had 7.2 days of rest, Inter 8.9 and had to travel 125 km.
Away travel125 kmRest days7.2 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Torino21%
Draw26%
Inter54%
Torino16%
Draw22%
Inter62%
Torino20%
Draw25%
Inter55%
Torino16%
Draw23%
Inter61%
Torino22%
Draw24%
Inter54%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 109
Team strength
Torino
Inter
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
39
AttackIn forecast
91
47
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoInter
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.36
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
70%
Scored inContext
94%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
11.42
ShotsContext
17.24
4.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.94
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.21
Shots in the boxContext
12.24
63%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.93
OffsidesContext
1.97
13.09
Shots allowedContext
8.82
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.31
3.82
BlocksContext
2.85
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.48
63%
Save rateContext
75%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
363
PassesContext
531
289
Accurate passesContext
465
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.05
13.58
FoulsContext
13.33
10.42
Fouls sufferedContext
10.88
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.50
ShotsContext
16.10
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
33%
On target shareContext
32%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
12.80
58%
Box shareContext
78%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
2.57
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
368
PassesContext
540
299
Accurate passesContext
472
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.95
13.60
FoulsContext
11.50
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km367 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel125 km78 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 8.9Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 367 km | 78 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
77E. Ebosse
44A. Ismajli
23Saúl Coco
33Rafael Obrador
66G. Gineitis
6E. İlkhan
20V. Lazaro
19C. Adams
10N. Vlašić
18G. Simeone
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
30Carlos Augusto
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
36M. Darmian
14A. Bonny
9M. Thuram
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Inter-1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.44points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-7
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.50
Inter · Away
2.31points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 12-1-3
- Scored
- 1.94
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 2–3 AL 2–3 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Parma | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Napoli | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Lazio | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Genoa | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Bologna | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Como | L 0–6 AL 1–5 H | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A | W 5–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Udinese | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 A | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A |
| Points | 40 of 96 · 1.25 per game | 75 of 96 · 2.34 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 Torino wins1 draws8 Inter wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.11
Over 2.533%
Both scored22%
Clean sheets0% · 78%
- 25 Aug 2025Inter5–0Torino
- 11 May 2025Torino0–2Inter
- 5 Oct 2024Inter3–2Torino
- 28 Apr 2024Inter2–0Torino
- 21 Oct 2023Torino0–3Inter
- 3 Jun 2023Torino0–1Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 2.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 3.24 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 55% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 6% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Torino | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 2.76 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.91 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 14/30 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 11/30 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 10/30 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.45 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 3.39 | 3.49 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 17/33 | 33% 11/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 7/33 | 21% 7/33 | |
| Torino | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.70 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 3.71
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+37%league 35%
Fouls23.8league 24.8
Penalties0.24league 0.29
Home wins45%league 40%
Torino8 with this referee
Record2-0-6
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L30 Nov 25A · Lecce1–22
- L27 Apr 25A · Napoli0–23
- W7 Jan 24H · Napoli3–00
- L26 Aug 23A · AC Milan1–43
- L15 Oct 22H · Juventus0–12
Inter7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L25 Oct 25A · Napoli1–31
- L16 Feb 25A · Juventus0–11
- D10 Nov 24H · Napoli1–11
- L22 Sep 24H · AC Milan1–24
- W28 Jan 23A · Cremonese2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino33 games · scored 37 · conceded 54
4
5
0-15
7
11
16-30
5
10
31-45
7
9
46-60
4
11
61-75
10
8
76-90
Inter33 games · scored 78 · conceded 29
11
2
0-15
9
4
16-30
12
8
31-45
14
2
46-60
14
3
61-75
18
10
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
