Torino
Attack+14%
Defense risk−10%
Our take
Torino were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Udinese. Udinese were without N. Zaniolo and K. Davis. Torino had 23.2 days of rest, Udinese 23.2 and had to travel 446 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel446 kmRest days23.2 · 23.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Torino46%
Draw24%
Udinese29%
Torino43%
Draw26%
Udinese31%
Torino45%
Draw24%
Udinese31%
Torino39%
Draw25%
Udinese36%
Torino46%
Draw24%
Udinese30%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
17°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 77%
RefereeValerio Crezzini
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 12
Team strength
Torino
Udinese
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
39
AttackIn forecast
22
47
DefenceIn forecast
18
29
Form indexContext
25
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack+7%
Defense risk−12%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
TorinoUdinese
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.83
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.80
ShotsContext
14.20
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
34%
On target shareContext
34%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
58%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
1.25
15.40
Shots allowedContext
17.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.60
BlocksContext
5.60
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
64%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
485
PassesContext
423
412
Accurate passesContext
353
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.20
FoulsContext
11.20
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
13.30
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
27%
On target shareContext
38%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
58%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.13
15.20
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.00
BlocksContext
4.30
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
62%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
440
PassesContext
425
371
Accurate passesContext
358
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.60
FoulsContext
11.70
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
LLWLD
Rest23.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 4 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Udinese
DWLLL
Rest23.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel446 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 25 · 4 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 23.2Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 23.2Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 446 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
20Lucas Perri(G)
13R. Rodríguez
23Saúl Coco
15P. Comuzzo
77Alessio Cacciamani
21Daniel Bragança
8R. Mandragora
45R. Belghali
19C. Adams
11G. Oristanio
18G. Simeone
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
77E. Ebosse
28O. Solet
14J. Abankwah
11H. Kamara
6Oier Zarraga
8J. Karlström
23M. Vojvoda
30G. Chakvetadze
32J. Ekkelenkamp
46Unai Gómez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −9.1% · Defence line −1.4% of weighted minutes
- ATT C. Adams Rotation 6.83 Att −6.5%
- MID C. Casadei Rotation 6.84 Att −2.7% Def −1.2%
- DEF F. Israel Depth 6.40 Def −0.2%
Udinese
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −39.9% · Defence line −5.0% of weighted minutes
- MID N. Zaniolo Starter 6.84 Att −11.5% Def −3.5%
- ATT K. Davis Starter 6.89 Att −19.9%
- MID J. Piotrowski Rotation 6.65 Att −4.1% Def −1.2%
- ATT Idrissa Gueye Rotation 6.54 Att −4.0%
- MID Juan Arizala Depth 6.60 Att −0.4% Def −0.1%
- DEF M. Palma Depth 6.73 Def −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Udinese-1.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Udinese · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Torino wins2 draws3 Udinese wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.10
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 2 May 2026Udinese2–0Torino
- 7 Jan 2026Torino1–2Udinese
- 23 Apr 2025Torino2–0Udinese
- 29 Dec 2024Udinese2–2Torino
- 16 Mar 2024Udinese0–2Torino
- 23 Dec 2023Torino1–1Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Torino | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 11.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.80 | 3.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Torino | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.80 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Valerio Crezzini 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.34
Red cards0.00league 0.07
Cards 5+17%league 29%
Fouls25.6league 21.9
Penalties0.25league 0.12
Home wins50%league 46%
TorinoNo previous matches with this referee.
Udinese1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 May 25H · Monza1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino5 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Udinese5 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
