Tottenham vs Newcastle – 29 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 17:30 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham 17th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–2Full time

Newcastle 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 63). Tottenham had 7 days of rest, Newcastle 6 and had to travel 398 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel398 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Tottenham38%

Draw24%

Newcastle38%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.51

Tottenham36%

Draw26%

Newcastle38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.36

Tottenham37%

Draw24%

Newcastle38%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.52

Tottenham31%

Draw24%

Newcastle46%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.70

Tottenham38%

Draw24%

Newcastle38%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.51

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

19°CDrizzle

Precipitation 0.3 mm
Wind 19 km/h
Humidity 88%

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 123

Team strength

Tottenham

Newcastle

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

56 AttackIn forecast 61

74 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Newcastle

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.11

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.80 ShotsContext 11.70

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

36% On target shareContext 36%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

69% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.38

12.10 Shots allowedContext 16.20

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.30

3.60 BlocksContext 5.40

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10

65% Save rateContext 65%

54% PossessionIn forecast 50%

440 PassesContext 416

369 Accurate passesContext 338

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.81

14.20 FoulsContext 10.50

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

3.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham L

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 43 · 0 pts vs 0.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L22 AugA · Brentford0–31.1 xPts

Newcastle D

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel398 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 51 · 1 pts vs 0.9 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

D23 AugH · Liverpool2–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug	6Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	26 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31A. Kinský(G)

3A. Robertson 37M. van de Ven 6J. van Hecke 14A. Gray

16S. Tonali 30R. Bentancur

11M. Tel 18Mateus Fernandes 23Pedro Porro

22O. Marmoush

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

21L. Horníček(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 37A. Dedić

67L. Miley 6Nico González

11H. Barnes 28J. Willock 19A. Elanga

9Y. Wissa

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tottenham+0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Newcastle-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home No home games yet this season.

Newcastle · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Tottenham wins1 draws6 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.90 – 2.40 Over 2.5100% Both scored90% Clean sheets0% · 10%

10 Feb 2026Tottenham1–2Newcastle
2 Dec 2025Newcastle2–2Tottenham
4 Jan 2025Tottenham1–2Newcastle
1 Sep 2024Newcastle2–1Tottenham
13 Apr 2024Newcastle4–0Tottenham
10 Dec 2023Tottenham4–1Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	3.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	4.00	3.03
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Tottenham	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	2.30	2.70	3.03
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	2.00
Corners conceded	7.00	6.00
Match total	10.00	8.00	9.00
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	5.00
Opponent cards	1.00	3.00
Match total	2.00	8.00	4.15
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Tottenham	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	3.80
Corners conceded	4.60	4.80
Match total	11.60	8.60	9.00
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	3.10	2.20
Opponent cards	2.20	2.60
Match total	5.30	4.80	4.15
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 123 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.06league 3.86

Red cards0.12league 0.07

Cards 5+44%league 43%

Fouls21.5league 23.5

Penalties0.15league 0.21

Home wins51%league 50%

Tottenham11 with this referee

Record3-3-5 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1

L22 Feb 26H · Arsenal1–42
D24 Jan 26A · Burnley2–20
W23 Aug 25A · Manchester City2–04
L16 May 25A · Aston Villa0–22
L21 Apr 25H · Nottingham Forest1–21

Newcastle16 with this referee

Record5-5-6 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against4 · 2 Reds1

W4 Mar 26H · Manchester United2–14
L14 Dec 25A · Sunderland0–14
W25 Oct 25H · Fulham2–10
W5 Oct 25H · Nottingham Forest2–00
D30 Aug 25A · Leeds0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.