Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Toulouse were slight favourites.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 23). Toulouse had 3.8 days of rest, LE Havre 3.9 and had to travel 663 km.
Away travel663 kmRest days3.8 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Toulouse53%
Draw25%
LE Havre21%
Toulouse55%
Draw24%
LE Havre21%
Toulouse54%
Draw25%
LE Havre21%
Toulouse46%
Draw27%
LE Havre27%
Toulouse54%
Draw25%
LE Havre21%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 81
Team strength
Toulouse
LE Havre
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
45
AttackIn forecast
20
49
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseLE Havre
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.90
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
32%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
71%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.56
BlocksContext
2.75
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
63%
Save rateContext
58%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
341
PassesContext
382
275
Accurate passesContext
315
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.80
FoulsContext
13.80
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.90
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
32%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
71%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.56
BlocksContext
2.75
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
63%
Save rateContext
58%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
341
PassesContext
382
275
Accurate passesContext
315
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.80
FoulsContext
13.80
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
LE Havre
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel663 km633 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 3.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 663 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 633 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
19D. Sidibé
24D. Methalie
77M. Sauer
23C. Cásseres
15A. Dønnum
9F. Magri
10G. Gboho
20Emersonn
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
15A. Seko
14R. Ndiaye
94A. Touré
8Y. Kechta
45I. Soumaré
10F. Mambimbi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- LE Havre+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 2.00
LE Havre · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Metz | W 4–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Auxerre | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Toulouse wins0 draws2 LE Havre wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 23 Feb 2025LE Havre1–4Toulouse
- 15 Sep 2024Toulouse2–0LE Havre
- 10 Mar 2024LE Havre1–0Toulouse
- 5 Nov 2023Toulouse1–2LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Toulouse | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 7.76 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Toulouse | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 7.76 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.89
Red cards0.23league 0.31
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls24.7league 24.5
Penalties0.31league 0.49
Home wins42%league 52%
Toulouse8 with this referee
Record2-4-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L14 Sep 25A · Lille1–24
- W2 Mar 25A · Angers4–03
- D18 Aug 24H · Nantes0–01
- L15 Mar 24H · Lyon2–32
- D17 Dec 23H · Rennes0–03
LE Havre2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L19 May 24H · Marseille1–21
- D28 Jan 24A · Lorient3–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
3
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
3
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
