Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 35). Toulouse had 5 days of rest, Lille 6 and had to travel 791 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel791 kmRest days5 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Toulouse29%
Draw25%
Lille45%
Toulouse31%
Draw26%
Lille44%
Toulouse30%
Draw25%
Lille45%
Toulouse23%
Draw24%
Lille53%
Toulouse30%
Draw25%
Lille45%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
Warm
29°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 33%
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 62
Team strength
Toulouse
Lille
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
45
AttackIn forecast
42
49
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseLille
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.95
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.00
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
17%
On target shareContext
60%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
69%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
20%
—
OffsidesContext
3.50
18.00
Shots allowedContext
19.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
5.00
BlocksContext
4.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
60%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
439
PassesContext
341
369
Accurate passesContext
283
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.03
16.50
FoulsContext
12.00
17.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.10
ShotsContext
11.60
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
29%
On target shareContext
47%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
55%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.20
Shots allowedContext
9.40
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.30
5.13
BlocksContext
3.29
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.70
65%
Save rateContext
74%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
344
PassesContext
469
283
Accurate passesContext
404
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.60
FoulsContext
9.50
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
LD
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,403 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 1 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 28 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 791 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,403 km | 885 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé
2R. Nicolaisen
3M. McKenzie
22R. Messali
6A. Vossah
23C. Cásseres
37Ilyas Azizi
8T. Jørgensen
9S. Hidalgo
13J. Russell-Rowe
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
24C. Verdonk
4Alexsandro Ribeiro
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
6N. Bentaleb
21B. André
11O. Sahraoui
10H. Haraldsson
8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lille+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Lille · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Toulouse wins1 draws6 Lille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 12 Apr 2026Toulouse0–4Lille
- 14 Sep 2025Lille2–1Toulouse
- 12 Apr 2025Toulouse1–2Lille
- 5 Oct 2024Lille2–1Toulouse
- 25 Feb 2024Toulouse3–1Lille
- 12 Nov 2023Lille1–1Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Toulouse | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.20 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.00 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Toulouse | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.89 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.40 | 3.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.10league 3.11
Red cards0.37league 0.17
Cards 5+47%league 22%
Fouls26.6league 22.9
Penalties0.39league 0.50
Home wins44%league 33%
Toulouse9 with this referee
Record3-2-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L2 Jan 26H · Lens0–33
- W3 Nov 24H · Reims1–00
- W25 Feb 24H · Lille3–12
- L28 Jan 24H · Lens0–23
- D12 Nov 23A · Lille1–14
Lille9 with this referee
Record4-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W26 Apr 26A · Paris FC1–02
- W22 Feb 26A · Angers1–01
- L28 Sep 25H · Lyon0–14
- W30 Mar 25H · Lens1–01
- W24 Nov 24H · Rennes1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Lille2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
Toulouse9 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
4
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 16 · conceded 6
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
