Toulouse vs Lyon – 22 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 19:45 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Toulouse

0–2Full time

Lyon

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lyon were slight favourites.

Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 37). Toulouse had 97 days of rest, Lyon 4 and had to travel 368 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel368 kmRest days97 · 4Matches / 14d0 · 2

Toulouse32%

Draw26%

Lyon42%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.45

Toulouse33%

Draw26%

Lyon41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

Toulouse32%

Draw26%

Lyon42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.43

Toulouse26%

Draw25%

Lyon49%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.63

Toulouse33%

Draw26%

Lyon41%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.45

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Toulouse)

27°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 30%

RefereeGuillaume Paradis

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.06
Matches 16

Team strength

Toulouse

Lyon

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 56

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

45 AttackIn forecast 55

49 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Toulouse

Lyon

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

+0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.90 ShotsContext 13.20

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

30% On target shareContext 41%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

53% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.40

14.20 Shots allowedContext 11.30

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

4.38 BlocksContext 3.25

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

66% Save rateContext 72%

41% PossessionIn forecast 52%

348 PassesContext 438

288 Accurate passesContext 372

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.94

13.10 FoulsContext 11.70

8.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Toulouse

Rest97 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lyon

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel368 km4,002 km in 14d

Schedule load16%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Toulouse	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 16
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	97Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May	4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 18 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	368 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	4,002 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16G. Restes(G)

12C. Tapé 2R. Nicolaisen 3M. McKenzie 94I. Diallo

31N. Schmidt 23C. Cásseres

10G. Gboho 8T. Jørgensen 7Julián Vignolo

9S. Hidalgo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Lyon Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40R. Descamps(G)

76Mohamed Ouédraogo 22Clinton Mata 20F. Bacher 13Z. Athekame

99N. Nartey 39Mathys de Carvalho 2M. Bidstrup

24J. Duranville 45Rémi Himbert 26K. Boudache

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Toulouse Absences are shown before kick-off

Lyon Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Toulouse+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Lyon+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Toulouse · Home No home games yet this season.

Lyon · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Toulouse wins2 draws4 Lyon wins

Goals per game1.13 – 1.63 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 25%

10 May 2026Toulouse2–1Lyon
5 Oct 2025Lyon1–2Toulouse
18 Jan 2025Lyon0–0Toulouse
29 Sep 2024Toulouse1–2Lyon
15 Mar 2024Toulouse2–3Lyon
10 Dec 2023Lyon3–0Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Toulouse	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.70
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	51%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Toulouse	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.70
Conceded per game	1.80	1.40
Match goals	3.20	3.10	2.70
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	51%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Toulouse	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Toulouse	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	3.10	8.00
Corners conceded	5.10	5.33
Match total	8.20	13.33	9.00
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.20
Opponent cards	1.20	3.00
Match total	3.70	4.20	3.50
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillaume Paradis 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.75league 2.50

Red cards0.13league 1.00

Cards 5+44%league 0%

Fouls24.2league 22.5

Penalties0.06league 2.00

Home wins38%league 100%

Toulouse3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

W21 Mar 26H · Lorient1–02
W25 Jan 26A · Stade Brestois 292–03
L25 Oct 25A · Monaco0–14

Lyon

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.