Toulouse vs Nantes – 27 Sep 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 6 Sat, Sep 27 · 18:00 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Toulouse 10th · 6 pts · 5 played WWLLL

2–2Full time

Nantes 17th · 4 pts · 5 played LLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Toulouse were slight favourites.

Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 24). Toulouse had 6.1 days of rest, Nantes 7.1 and had to travel 465 km.

Away travel465 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

Toulouse52%

Draw26%

Nantes22%

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.98

Toulouse53%

Draw25%

Nantes22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Toulouse52%

Draw26%

Nantes22%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.98

Toulouse45%

Draw27%

Nantes28%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.10

Toulouse53%

Draw25%

Nantes22%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.04

Over 2.5 49% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Toulouse)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 103

Team strength

Toulouse

Nantes

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

45 AttackIn forecast 24

49 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Toulouse

Nantes

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 0.73

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

80% Scored inContext 40%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.60 ShotsContext 9.40

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.75

34% On target shareContext 23%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

69% Box shareContext 51%

13% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.33

13.60 Shots allowedContext 14.80

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

5.00 BlocksContext 5.50

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

53% Save rateContext 78%

41% PossessionIn forecast 42%

335 PassesContext 360

274 Accurate passesContext 287

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.78

12.80 FoulsContext 10.60

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 0.83

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

70% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.10 ShotsContext 9.40

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.78

41% On target shareContext 27%

8.44 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

72% Box shareContext 54%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.17

12.70 Shots allowedContext 12.00

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.40 BlocksContext 4.00

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

61% Save rateContext 75%

42% PossessionIn forecast 43%

357 PassesContext 388

292 Accurate passesContext 319

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.80 FoulsContext 11.10

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.30 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Toulouse

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,571 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel465 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Toulouse	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Sep	7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	465 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,571 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Restes(G)

2R. Nicolaisen 4C. Cresswell 3M. McKenzie

12W. Kamanzi 77M. Sauer 17A. Francis 19D. Sidibé

9F. Magri 15A. Dønnum

20Emersonn

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Lopes(G)

66L. Leroux 78Tylel Tati 6C. Awaziem 98K. Amian

17D. Assoumani 80J. Mwanga 8J. Lepenant

15M. Lahdo 10M. Abline 14A. Camara

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Toulouse Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Toulouse+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Nantes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Toulouse · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 3.00

Nantes · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Toulouse	Nantes
Auxerre	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 3–6 H	L 0–1 H
Nice	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Toulouse wins3 draws2 Nantes wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

27 Apr 2025Nantes0–0Toulouse
18 Aug 2024Toulouse0–0Nantes
11 Feb 2024Toulouse1–2Nantes
13 Aug 2023Nantes1–2Toulouse
14 May 2023Toulouse0–0Nantes
28 Aug 2022Nantes3–1Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Toulouse	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.60
Conceded per game	1.80	1.00
Match goals	3.20	1.60	2.62
Over 1.5	60%	20%
Over 2.5	40%	20%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	20%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	5	5

	Toulouse	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.60
Conceded per game	1.80	1.00
Match goals	3.20	1.60	2.62
Over 1.5	60%	20%
Over 2.5	40%	20%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	20%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Toulouse	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	3.80
Corners conceded	6.80	6.80
Match total	11.20	10.60	9.70
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	80% 4/5
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	80% 4/5	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.40
Opponent cards	1.40	1.80
Match total	4.20	3.20	4.14
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	0% 0/5

	Toulouse	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	3.90
Corners conceded	5.44	5.70
Match total	9.88	9.60	9.70
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.70
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.50	3.70	4.14
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 103 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.27league 3.72

Red cards0.20league 0.38

Cards 5+47%league 40%

Fouls24.9league 24.0

Penalties0.38league 0.53

Home wins53%league 66%

Toulouse4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L12 Jan 25H · Strasbourg1–21
W18 Feb 24A · Monaco2–13
L27 Aug 23A · Strasbourg0–23
W16 Oct 22H · Angers3–23

Nantes6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L17 Aug 25H · Paris Saint Germain0–11
D26 Jan 25H · Lyon1–13
L20 Dec 23A · Lyon0–12
L7 May 23H · Strasbourg0–23
W1 Jan 23H · Auxerre1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.