Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 24). Absences weigh more on Trabzonspor. Trabzonspor had 6.9 days of rest, Alanyaspor 4.9 and had to travel 833 km.
Away travel833 kmRest days6.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Trabzonspor53%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor22%
Trabzonspor54%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor21%
Trabzonspor54%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor21%
Trabzonspor46%
Draw26%
Alanyaspor28%
Trabzonspor53%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor22%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.80
- Matches 10
Team strength
Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
54
AttackIn forecast
18
48
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporAlanyaspor
1.55
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
82%
Scored inContext
64%
55%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
13.55
ShotsContext
10.55
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
35%
On target shareContext
34%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.64
63%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.91
Shots allowedContext
11.09
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.36
4.10
BlocksContext
2.86
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
92%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
388
PassesContext
378
327
Accurate passesContext
307
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.82
FoulsContext
12.82
14.64
Fouls sufferedContext
14.82
1.55
Yellow cardsContext
2.18
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.80
ShotsContext
10.70
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
37%
On target shareContext
36%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
64%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.10
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.22
BlocksContext
2.86
4.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
91%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
384
PassesContext
379
323
Accurate passesContext
309
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.10
FoulsContext
12.00
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel833 km1,042 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 4.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 833 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 1,042 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16.1 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
5O. Yokuşlu
23R. Baniya
20Wagner Pina
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
70K. Olaigbe
99F. da Silva
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
58Maestro
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
14I. Hagi
12M. Elia
16U. Hwang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
2.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Alanyaspor · Away
1.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game | 3 of 18 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Trabzonspor wins0 draws2 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game1.75 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 27 Apr 2025Trabzonspor4–3Alanyaspor
- 30 Nov 2024Alanyaspor2–1Trabzonspor
- 4 Mar 2024Alanyaspor3–1Trabzonspor
- 23 Oct 2023Trabzonspor1–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.55 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.64 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.18 | 2.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 36% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 45% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 55% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 36% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Trabzonspor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 8.38 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.73 | 2.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.45 | 4.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Trabzonspor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 9.00 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.60 | 4.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.80league 4.62
Red cards0.20league 0.28
Cards 5+70%league 52%
Fouls25.8league 26.1
Penalties0.80league 0.28
Home wins60%league 38%
Trabzonspor2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W3 Oct 25H · Kayserispor4–00
- W27 Apr 25H · Alanyaspor4–33
Alanyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L27 Apr 25A · Trabzonspor3–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor11 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Alanyaspor11 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
