Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 17). Trabzonspor had 5.9 days of rest, Antalyaspor 7 and had to travel 903 km.
Away travel903 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Trabzonspor59%
Draw23%
Antalyaspor18%
Trabzonspor58%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor19%
Trabzonspor58%
Draw23%
Antalyaspor18%
Trabzonspor51%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor24%
Trabzonspor58%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor19%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 2.0
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
Trabzonspor
Antalyaspor
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
54
AttackIn forecast
11
48
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporAntalyaspor
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
0.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.50
1.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
9%
On target shareContext
44%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
50%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
2.50
BlocksContext
4.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
100%
Save rateContext
75%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
415
PassesContext
339
354
Accurate passesContext
262
85%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.00
FoulsContext
10.00
17.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
90%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.40
ShotsContext
9.20
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
35%
On target shareContext
37%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
64%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
3.29
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.30
Shots allowedContext
10.60
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.50
BlocksContext
2.89
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
71%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
481
PassesContext
390
420
Accurate passesContext
316
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.90
FoulsContext
13.10
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel903 km768 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Aug | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 903 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 768 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
44A. Batagov
15S. Savić
20Wagner Pina
70K. Olaigbe
5O. Yokuşlu
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
99F. da Silva
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
21A. Yiğiter(G)
3K. Paal
14G. Dzhikiya
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
6S. Dikmen
23Jesper Ceesay
26N. Storm
10A. Ömür
22S. van de Streek
9T. Čvančara
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Antalyaspor-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Antalyaspor · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Trabzonspor wins1 draws0 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game2.25 – 0.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 0%
- 30 May 2025Antalyaspor0–2Trabzonspor
- 12 Jan 2025Trabzonspor5–0Antalyaspor
- 14 Jan 2024Antalyaspor1–1Trabzonspor
- 11 Aug 2023Trabzonspor1–0Antalyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Trabzonspor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.50 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.00 | 4.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Trabzonspor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 7.30 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.80 | 4.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.00league 3.89
Red cards0.00league 0.39
Cards 5+33%league 39%
Fouls25.7league 26.4
Penalties1.00league 0.39
Home wins33%league 44%
Trabzonspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 May 25A · Antalyaspor2–00
Antalyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 May 25H · Trabzonspor0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor2 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Antalyaspor2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
