Trabzonspor
Attack−18%
Defense risk+47%
Our take
It was too close to call.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Trabzonspor were without P. Onuachu and M. Kabasakal. Besiktas were without D. Vlahović and V. Černý. Trabzonspor had 9.2 days of rest, Besiktas 3.9 and had to travel 904 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel904 kmRest days9.2 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Trabzonspor36%
Draw23%
Besiktas41%
Trabzonspor39%
Draw27%
Besiktas34%
Trabzonspor36%
Draw23%
Besiktas41%
Trabzonspor28%
Draw23%
Besiktas49%
Trabzonspor36%
Draw24%
Besiktas40%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
17°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 85%
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 25
Team strength
Trabzonspor
Besiktas
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
54
AttackIn forecast
60
48
DefenceIn forecast
48
55
Form indexContext
79
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack−8%
Defense risk+21%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
TrabzonsporBesiktas
2.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.29
0.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
+0.84
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
86%
Scored inContext
86%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.29
ShotsContext
16.50
6.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.17
48%
On target shareContext
37%
9.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
68%
Box shareContext
57%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
2.67
OffsidesContext
3.17
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
2.83
BlocksContext
3.75
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
82%
Save rateContext
65%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
452
PassesContext
494
388
Accurate passesContext
427
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.29
FoulsContext
13.67
16.43
Fouls sufferedContext
15.67
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
2.25
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
16.71
6.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.29
47%
On target shareContext
38%
9.71
Shots in the boxContext
11.14
70%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
12.88
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.22
BlocksContext
3.25
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
80%
Save rateContext
61%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
459
PassesContext
484
396
Accurate passesContext
412
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.20
FoulsContext
10.22
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.78
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
LWLWW
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km571 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 55 · 9 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Besiktas
WWLWW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel904 km3,627 km in 14d
Schedule load22%Moderate
Form 79 · 12 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 22 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 3.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 571 km | 3,627 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
20Wagner Pina
6Fabinho
11O. Tufan
58D. Şimşir
7E. Muçi
10Mohamed Salah
9F. Gluda Djú
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1A. Nübel(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
6S. Özcan
19L. Trossard
21F. Miretti
15Junior Olaitan
18V. Černý
28D. Vlahović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −23.9% · Defence line −9.4% of weighted minutes
- ATT P. Onuachu Starter 7.04 Att −13.5%
- MID M. Kabasakal Starter 6.50 Att −5.9% Def −5.3%
- MID A. Batagov Starter 7.30 Att −3.9% Def −3.5%
- MID O. Yokuşlu Rotation 6.59 Att −0.5% Def −0.5%
- DEF O. Çevikkan Depth 6.60 Def −0.2%
Besiktas
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −29.4% · Defence line −1.1% of weighted minutes
- ATT D. Vlahović Core 7.30 Att −16.0%
- ATT V. Černý Starter 6.79 Att −12.3%
- MID M. Rashica Rotation 6.78 Att −1.0% Def −1.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Besiktas+0.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Besiktas · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Amed | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Trabzonspor wins2 draws2 Besiktas wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 9 May 2026Besiktas1–2Trabzonspor
- 14 Dec 2025Trabzonspor3–3Besiktas
- 15 Feb 2025Besiktas2–1Trabzonspor
- 15 Sep 2024Trabzonspor1–1Besiktas
- 4 Feb 2024Besiktas2–0Trabzonspor
- 17 Sep 2023Trabzonspor3–0Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.43 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Trabzonspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.70 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 7.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 11.34 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.43 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Trabzonspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 11.22 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.80 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.89
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+36%league 39%
Fouls26.2league 24.7
Penalties0.40league 0.35
Home wins36%league 48%
Trabzonspor4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W4 Apr 26H · Galatasaray2–13
- W9 Mar 26A · Kayserispor3–10
- D1 Nov 25A · Galatasaray0–02
- W18 Aug 25A · Kasimpasa1–02
Besiktas4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W28 Feb 26A · Kocaelispor1–02
- W20 Dec 25H · Rizespor1–03
- W8 Nov 25A · Antalyaspor3–11
- W1 Jun 25A · BB Bodrumspor4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor7 games · scored 16 · conceded 5
5
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Besiktas7 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
61-75
2
4
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
