Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Trabzonspor
3rd · 48 pts · 23 played
WDWLW
3–1Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 13 pts · 23 played
LLWLD
Our take
Trabzonspor were clear favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fatih Karagümrük. Trabzonspor had 5.2 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 5 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days5.2 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Trabzonspor68%
Draw19%
Fatih Karagümrük12%
Trabzonspor70%
Draw19%
Fatih Karagümrük11%
Trabzonspor69%
Draw19%
Fatih Karagümrük12%
Trabzonspor61%
Draw22%
Fatih Karagümrük17%
Trabzonspor67%
Draw20%
Fatih Karagümrük13%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 16
Team strength
TrabzonsporFatih Karagümrük
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
54
AttackIn forecast
13
48
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporFatih Karagümrük
1.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.87
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
91%
Scored inContext
57%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
15.26
ShotsContext
10.26
5.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
37%
On target shareContext
29%
9.55
Shots in the boxContext
5.65
61%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.62
13.09
Shots allowedContext
13.96
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.95
3.76
BlocksContext
3.09
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.95
77%
Save rateContext
64%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
420
PassesContext
359
363
Accurate passesContext
283
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.64
12.17
FoulsContext
13.52
13.43
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.71
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
100%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.70
ShotsContext
9.50
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
38%
On target shareContext
33%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
58%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.11
3.33
BlocksContext
2.70
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
64%
Save rateContext
62%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
445
PassesContext
361
391
Accurate passesContext
290
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.60
FoulsContext
12.50
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km966 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel904 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 966 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
44A. Batagov
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
19M. Eskihellaç
42Christ Inao Oulaï
8B. Bouchouari
11O. Tufan
30E. Onuachu
99F. da Silva
10E. Muçi
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
6B. Elmaz
5M. Kranevitter
23S. Larsson
80S. Babicka
10D. Verde
70Serginho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
2.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-1
- Scored
- 1.91
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.36points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-9
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 2.09
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Samsunspor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 3–4 A | L 0–3 A |
| Besiktas | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Goztepe | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 4–3 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Galatasaray | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 45 of 66 · 2.05 per game | 13 of 66 · 0.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Trabzonspor wins1 draws0 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 27 Sep 2025Fatih Karagümrük3–4Trabzonspor
- 9 Mar 2024Trabzonspor5–1Fatih Karagümrük
- 29 Oct 2023Fatih Karagümrük0–0Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.96 | 0.87 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.70 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 48% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 48% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 43% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Trabzonspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.50 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 3.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.09 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 8.70 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 4.26 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 12/23 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 7/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Trabzonspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.00 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 4.48
Red cards0.13league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 47%
Fouls25.1league 26.0
Penalties0.31league 0.26
Home wins50%league 38%
Trabzonspor3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Jan 26H · Kasimpasa2–12
- W24 Aug 25H · Antalyaspor1–01
- W30 May 25A · Antalyaspor2–00
Fatih Karagümrük2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Dec 25A · Genclerbirligi0–32
- L17 Sep 25H · Istanbul Basaksehir0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor23 games · scored 45 · conceded 27
5
2
0-15
7
8
16-30
8
7
31-45
10
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
11
5
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük23 games · scored 20 · conceded 42
2
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
4
7
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
13
61-75
8
6
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
