Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Trabzonspor. Trabzonspor had 17 days of rest, Galatasaray 21 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days17 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Trabzonspor39%
Draw25%
Galatasaray36%
Trabzonspor29%
Draw27%
Galatasaray44%
Trabzonspor40%
Draw25%
Galatasaray35%
Trabzonspor32%
Draw25%
Galatasaray43%
Trabzonspor39%
Draw26%
Galatasaray35%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 19
Team strength
Trabzonspor
Galatasaray
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
54
AttackIn forecast
57
48
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporGalatasaray
1.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.38
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.69
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
93%
Scored inContext
88%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
14.89
ShotsContext
16.12
5.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.62
36%
On target shareContext
35%
9.42
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
62%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.19
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.70
Shots allowedContext
9.73
4.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.52
BlocksContext
2.91
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
78%
Save rateContext
82%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
441
PassesContext
499
382
Accurate passesContext
437
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.07
11.81
FoulsContext
12.19
13.22
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.30
ShotsContext
14.20
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
35%
On target shareContext
37%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
63%
Box shareContext
71%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.13
10.20
Shots allowedContext
14.70
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.89
BlocksContext
3.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
80%
Save rateContext
79%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
480
PassesContext
454
426
Accurate passesContext
385
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.30
FoulsContext
11.30
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest17 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel904 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 17Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Mar | 21Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
15S. Savić
20Wagner Pina
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
11O. Tufan
9A. Nwakaeme
99F. da Silva
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
90W. Singo
99M. Lemina
34L. Torreira
77N. Lang
11Y. Akgün
53B. Yılmaz
9M. Icardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Galatasaray+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
2.15points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-1
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 0.92
Galatasaray · Away
2.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.58
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 HW 4–3 A | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Samsunspor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 3–4 A | W 3–2 H |
| Besiktas | D 3–3 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Goztepe | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 4–3 A | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 59 of 78 · 2.27 per game | 63 of 75 · 2.52 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Trabzonspor wins1 draws4 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.80 – 2.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 60%
- 1 Nov 2025Galatasaray0–0Trabzonspor
- 10 May 2025Trabzonspor0–2Galatasaray
- 16 Dec 2024Galatasaray4–3Trabzonspor
- 21 Jan 2024Trabzonspor1–5Galatasaray
- 19 Aug 2023Galatasaray2–0Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.96 | 2.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 0.69 | |
| Match goals | 3.04 | 3.08 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 65% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 12% | |
| Games | 27 | 26 |
| Trabzonspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.58 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.00 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 13/25 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 10/25 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.41 | 2.35 | |
| Match total | 4.04 | 4.35 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 13/27 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 7/27 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Trabzonspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.22 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.70 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 4.41
Red cards0.16league 0.21
Cards 5+32%league 45%
Fouls25.9league 26.1
Penalties0.37league 0.27
Home wins26%league 39%
Trabzonspor3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W9 Mar 26A · Kayserispor3–10
- D1 Nov 25A · Galatasaray0–02
- W18 Aug 25A · Kasimpasa1–02
Galatasaray1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Nov 25H · Trabzonspor0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor27 games · scored 53 · conceded 29
5
2
0-15
8
9
16-30
10
7
31-45
14
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
11
6
76-90
Galatasaray26 games · scored 62 · conceded 18
9
2
0-15
9
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
10
3
46-60
13
5
61-75
14
5
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 23 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
