Trabzonspor vs Gazişehir Gaziantep – 20 Sep 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 6 Sat, Sep 20 · 18:00 Papara Park, Trabzon

Trabzonspor 4th · 10 pts · 5 played WWWDL

1–1Full time

Gazişehir Gaziantep 6th · 9 pts · 5 played LLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Trabzonspor were slight favourites.

Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 21). Absences weigh more on Trabzonspor. Trabzonspor had 6 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 and had to travel 483 km.

Away travel483 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Trabzonspor53%

Draw25%

Gazişehir Gaziantep22%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.06

Trabzonspor53%

Draw25%

Gazişehir Gaziantep22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Trabzonspor54%

Draw25%

Gazişehir Gaziantep22%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.04

Trabzonspor45%

Draw26%

Gazişehir Gaziantep28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.19

Trabzonspor52%

Draw25%

Gazişehir Gaziantep23%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.06

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Trabzon)

No weather data yet

Referee · TurkeyArda Kardesler

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 6

Team strength

Trabzonspor

Gazişehir Gaziantep

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

54 AttackIn forecast 15

48 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Trabzonspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Trabzonspor

Gazişehir Gaziantep

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

80% Scored inContext 60%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.80 ShotsContext 13.60

2.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

25% On target shareContext 27%

6.75 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

56% Box shareContext 60%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.75

14.00 Shots allowedContext 11.20

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.25 BlocksContext 2.00

4.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

90% Save rateContext 57%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

379 PassesContext 362

315 Accurate passesContext 297

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.60 FoulsContext 14.80

14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 16.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 3.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

80% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.00 ShotsContext 12.90

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

30% On target shareContext 30%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.89

60% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.67

13.60 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.50 BlocksContext 3.00

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

80% Save rateContext 65%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

428 PassesContext 377

365 Accurate passesContext 309

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.70 FoulsContext 13.50

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Trabzonspor

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel483 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Trabzonspor	Gazişehir Gaziantep
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Sep	6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	483 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,807 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Trabzonspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

24A. Onana(G)

19M. Eskihellaç 44A. Batagov 15S. Savić 20Wagner Pina

26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli 11O. Tufan

70K. Olaigbe 10E. Muçi 22O. Zubkov

30E. Onuachu

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Gazişehir Gaziantep Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

71M. Bozan(G)

23T. Sanuç 14L. Abena 6M. Kabasakal

77K. Rodrigues 44A. Maxim 5P. Ndiaye 2Luis Pérez

18D. Sorescu 10K. Kozłowski

32Y. Kabadayı

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Trabzonspor Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Gazişehir Gaziantep Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Trabzonspor-0.9 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Trabzonspor · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.33

Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Trabzonspor	Gazişehir Gaziantep
Kasimpasa	W 1–0 A	W 3–2 A
Kocaelispor	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Trabzonspor wins1 draws0 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.25 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 25%

23 Feb 2025Trabzonspor3–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
23 Sep 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–0Trabzonspor
28 Apr 2024Trabzonspor4–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
10 Dec 2023Gazişehir Gaziantep1–3Trabzonspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Trabzonspor	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.40
Conceded per game	0.40	1.80
Match goals	1.20	3.20	2.82
Over 1.5	20%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	80%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	40%	55%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	5	5

	Trabzonspor	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.40
Conceded per game	0.40	1.80
Match goals	1.20	3.20	2.82
Over 1.5	20%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	80%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	40%	55%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Trabzonspor	Gazişehir Gaziantep	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	4.80
Corners conceded	6.50	3.60
Match total	10.00	8.40	9.20
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	40% 2/5
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	20% 1/5
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	20% 1/5
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.60
Opponent cards	2.20	3.80
Match total	4.20	7.40	4.63
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	100% 5/5
Over 4.5	20% 1/5	100% 5/5

	Trabzonspor	Gazişehir Gaziantep	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	4.44
Corners conceded	6.11	5.44
Match total	9.78	9.88	9.20
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.50
Opponent cards	1.90	3.40
Match total	3.90	5.90	4.63
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Arda Kardesler Turkey · 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.17league 4.43

Red cards0.00league 0.27

Cards 5+33%league 45%

Fouls23.0league 26.2

Penalties0.50league 0.27

Home wins50%league 41%

Trabzonspor

No previous matches with this referee.

Gazişehir Gaziantep

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.