Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Goztepe. Trabzonspor had 5 days of rest, Goztepe 7 and had to travel 1,114 km.
Away travel1,114 kmRest days5 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Trabzonspor53%
Draw25%
Goztepe23%
Trabzonspor54%
Draw25%
Goztepe21%
Trabzonspor53%
Draw25%
Goztepe22%
Trabzonspor45%
Draw26%
Goztepe29%
Trabzonspor52%
Draw25%
Goztepe24%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 19
Team strength
Trabzonspor
Goztepe
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
54
AttackIn forecast
39
48
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporGoztepe
1.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.87
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
94%
Scored inContext
74%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
52%
14.97
ShotsContext
13.16
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
34%
On target shareContext
34%
9.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.74
62%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.84
Shots allowedContext
11.68
4.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.61
3.52
BlocksContext
3.53
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
77%
Save rateContext
77%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
439
PassesContext
245
381
Accurate passesContext
168
87%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.52
FoulsContext
16.81
12.97
Fouls sufferedContext
9.29
1.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.42
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.20
ShotsContext
13.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
28%
On target shareContext
35%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
66%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.75
12.10
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
2.70
BlocksContext
3.20
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
79%
Save rateContext
61%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
472
PassesContext
252
414
Accurate passesContext
174
88%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.50
FoulsContext
16.50
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,425 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,114 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Apr | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,114 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,425 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
74S. Malkoçoğlu
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
11O. Tufan
19M. Eskihellaç
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
8B. Bouchouari
20Wagner Pina
99F. da Silva
10E. Muçi
30E. Onuachu
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
8A. Antunes
39Janderson
9Juan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Goztepe+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
2.13points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-1
- Scored
- 1.87
- Conceded
- 0.93
Goztepe · Away
1.53points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-4
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 0.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 HW 4–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 3–4 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Besiktas | D 3–3 H | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 62 of 90 · 2.07 per game | 51 of 90 · 1.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Trabzonspor wins1 draws1 Goztepe wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 7 Dec 2025Goztepe1–2Trabzonspor
- 29 Mar 2025Trabzonspor1–1Goztepe
- 26 Oct 2024Goztepe2–1Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.87 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.87 | |
| Match goals | 2.97 | 2.13 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 39% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 42% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 52% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 26% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Trabzonspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.93 | 4.47 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.07 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.10 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 19/29 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 16/29 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 13/29 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.55 | 2.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.32 | |
| Match total | 4.03 | 4.87 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 16/31 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 8/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Trabzonspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 8.33 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.80 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.68league 4.44
Red cards0.32league 0.22
Cards 5+47%league 46%
Fouls24.2league 26.0
Penalties0.11league 0.28
Home wins58%league 41%
Trabzonspor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L14 Sep 25A · Fenerbahce0–14
- D25 May 25H · Samsunspor2–25
Goztepe2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Feb 26A · Besiktas0–41
- D19 Apr 25H · Besiktas1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor31 games · scored 58 · conceded 34
6
2
0-15
8
9
16-30
10
9
31-45
15
4
46-60
7
3
61-75
12
7
76-90
Goztepe31 games · scored 39 · conceded 27
5
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
8
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
6
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
