Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir – 23 Aug 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 23 · 17:00 Papara Park, Trabzon

Trabzonspor 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

2–1Full time

Istanbul Basaksehir 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Istanbul Basaksehir. Trabzonspor had 3 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 7 and had to travel 904 km.

Away travel904 kmRest days3 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Trabzonspor38%

Draw25%

Istanbul Basaksehir37%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.38

Trabzonspor44%

Draw26%

Istanbul Basaksehir30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.20

Trabzonspor38%

Draw25%

Istanbul Basaksehir37%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.38

Trabzonspor31%

Draw25%

Istanbul Basaksehir44%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.54

Trabzonspor38%

Draw26%

Istanbul Basaksehir37%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.34

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Trabzon)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.56
Matches 18

Team strength

Trabzonspor

Istanbul Basaksehir

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

54 AttackIn forecast 32

48 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Trabzonspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Trabzonspor

Istanbul Basaksehir

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

80% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.89 ShotsContext 14.50

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

29% On target shareContext 34%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.56

66% Box shareContext 72%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.17

13.22 Shots allowedContext 11.20

3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.40 BlocksContext 3.22

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

68% Save rateContext 78%

55% PossessionIn forecast 52%

425 PassesContext 418

363 Accurate passesContext 353

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.92 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.40 FoulsContext 12.20

14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Trabzonspor D

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d

Schedule load13%Low

Form 43 · 1 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected

D15 AugA · Kasimpasa1–11.6 xPts

Istanbul Basaksehir W

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel904 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 58 · 3 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

W16 AugH · Kocaelispor2–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Trabzonspor	Istanbul Basaksehir
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 13	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug	7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	904 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,807 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Trabzonspor Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

24A. Onana(G)

19M. Eskihellaç 15S. Savić 27Chibuike Nwaiwu 55Sidny Lopes Cabral

58D. Şimşir 17R. Malinovskyi 57M. Kabasakal 7E. Muçi

10Mohamed Salah

30E. Onuachu

Istanbul Basaksehir Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16M. Şengezer(G)

21C. Opéri 3J. Opoku 23E. Bayram 42Ö. Şahiner

18J. Kałuziński 8O. Kemen

11A. Fayzullaev 14E. Shomurodov 70A. Skov Olsen

91B. Yıldırım

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Trabzonspor Absences are shown before kick-off

Istanbul Basaksehir Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Trabzonspor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Istanbul Basaksehir+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Trabzonspor · Home No home games yet this season.

Istanbul Basaksehir · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Trabzonspor wins2 draws0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins

Goals per game1.83 – 0.83 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

19 Apr 2026Trabzonspor1–1Istanbul Basaksehir
24 Nov 2025Istanbul Basaksehir3–4Trabzonspor
15 Mar 2025Istanbul Basaksehir0–3Trabzonspor
19 Oct 2024Trabzonspor1–0Istanbul Basaksehir
18 May 2024Istanbul Basaksehir0–1Trabzonspor
23 Dec 2023Trabzonspor1–1Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Trabzonspor	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	2.00	2.79
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Trabzonspor	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.60
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	2.20	2.40	2.79
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	60%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Trabzonspor	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	10.00	8.00
Corners conceded	3.00	2.00
Match total	13.00	10.00	9.82
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	2.00	4.00	2.82
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Trabzonspor	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.30
Corners conceded	4.80	4.50
Match total	10.00	8.80	9.82
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.10
Opponent cards	2.80	1.50
Match total	4.30	3.60	2.82
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.72league 2.92

Red cards0.22league 0.15

Cards 5+56%league 31%

Fouls25.1league 24.3

Penalties0.56league 0.38

Home wins61%league 38%

Trabzonspor4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

D14 Dec 25H · Besiktas3–32
D8 Nov 25H · Alanyaspor1–11
W3 Oct 25H · Kayserispor4–00
W27 Apr 25H · Alanyaspor4–33

Istanbul Basaksehir2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W11 Apr 26H · Genclerbirligi3–02
W22 Dec 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep5–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.