Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor – 3 Oct 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 8 Fri, Oct 3 · 18:00 Papara Park, Trabzon

Trabzonspor 3rd · 14 pts · 7 played WDLDW

4–0Full time

Kayserispor 15th · 5 pts · 7 played DDDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Trabzonspor were slight favourites.

Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 17). Trabzonspor had 6 days of rest, Kayserispor 5 and had to travel 441 km.

Away travel441 kmRest days6 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 3

Trabzonspor58%

Draw23%

Kayserispor19%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.98

Trabzonspor58%

Draw24%

Kayserispor19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.96

Trabzonspor58%

Draw23%

Kayserispor18%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.97

Trabzonspor50%

Draw25%

Kayserispor24%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.10

Trabzonspor58%

Draw24%

Kayserispor19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.97

Over 2.5 55% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Trabzon)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.86
Matches 7

Team strength

Trabzonspor

Kayserispor

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 13

54 AttackIn forecast 16

48 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Trabzonspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kayserispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Trabzonspor

Kayserispor

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

86% Scored inContext 71%

43% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.71 ShotsContext 11.43

4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

30% On target shareContext 31%

9.17 Shots in the boxContext 6.43

58% Box shareContext 57%

9% ConversionContext 6%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.20

12.29 Shots allowedContext 11.57

3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.57

3.83 BlocksContext 2.00

4.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

90% Save rateContext 68%

50% PossessionIn forecast 51%

387 PassesContext 355

323 Accurate passesContext 282

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.64

11.71 FoulsContext 12.86

15.14 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.71 Yellow cardsContext 2.86

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

90% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.70 ShotsContext 10.20

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

31% On target shareContext 35%

9.56 Shots in the boxContext 5.80

64% Box shareContext 56%

10% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.29

11.90 Shots allowedContext 15.40

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40

3.63 BlocksContext 3.38

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00

82% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 48%

442 PassesContext 343

381 Accurate passesContext 269

86% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.70

13.00 FoulsContext 11.60

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Trabzonspor

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kayserispor

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel441 km934 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Trabzonspor	Kayserispor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Sep	5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	441 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,807 km	934 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14.9	15.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Trabzonspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

24A. Onana(G)

19M. Eskihellaç 44A. Batagov 15S. Savić 20Wagner Pina

26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli 5O. Yokuşlu

99F. da Silva 42Christ Inao Oulaï 22O. Zubkov

30E. Onuachu

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Kayserispor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

25B. Bayazıt(G)

3A. Burak 23L. Carole 4S. Denswil 28R. Civelek

24D. Toköz

7Miguel Cardoso 8L. Bénes 33F. Soyalp 30A. Opoku

9G. Onugkha

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Trabzonspor Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Kayserispor Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Trabzonspor-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Kayserispor+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Trabzonspor · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Kayserispor · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Trabzonspor	Kayserispor
Antalyaspor	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Kocaelispor	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Trabzonspor wins2 draws1 Kayserispor wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 50%

1 Feb 2025Kayserispor0–0Trabzonspor
19 Sep 2024Trabzonspor2–2Kayserispor
20 Apr 2024Kayserispor1–2Trabzonspor
3 Dec 2023Trabzonspor0–1Kayserispor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Trabzonspor	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	0.71
Conceded per game	0.86	1.86
Match goals	2.14	2.57	2.87
Over 1.5	43%	100%
Over 2.5	14%	29%	55%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	71%	54%
Clean sheets	43%	0%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

	Trabzonspor	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	0.71
Conceded per game	0.86	1.86
Match goals	2.14	2.57	2.87
Over 1.5	43%	100%
Over 2.5	14%	29%	55%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	71%	54%
Clean sheets	43%	0%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Trabzonspor	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.17	5.17
Corners conceded	5.33	5.50
Match total	9.50	10.67	9.61
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	1.86	2.86
Opponent cards	2.71	2.43
Match total	4.57	5.29	4.85
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	86% 6/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7

	Trabzonspor	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	5.11
Corners conceded	4.56	6.22
Match total	9.23	11.33	9.61
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.70
Opponent cards	2.10	2.80
Match total	4.10	5.50	4.85
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.29league 4.62

Red cards0.14league 0.28

Cards 5+86%league 51%

Fouls25.7league 26.6

Penalties0.86league 0.25

Home wins57%league 38%

Trabzonspor1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W27 Apr 25H · Alanyaspor4–33

Kayserispor1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L18 May 25A · Galatasaray0–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.