Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Trabzonspor had ? days of rest, Kocaelispor ? and had to travel 1,046 km.
Away travel1,046 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Trabzonspor47%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor27%
Trabzonspor47%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor27%
Trabzonspor47%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor27%
Trabzonspor40%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor33%
Trabzonspor47%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor27%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
Trabzonspor
Kocaelispor
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
54
AttackIn forecast
16
48
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporKocaelispor
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
—
30%
Clean sheetsContext
—
12.70
ShotsContext
—
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
36%
On target shareContext
—
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
—
67%
Box shareContext
—
12%
ConversionContext
—
2.88
OffsidesContext
—
11.00
Shots allowedContext
—
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
2.75
BlocksContext
—
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
65%
Save rateContext
—
57%
PossessionIn forecast
—
494
PassesContext
—
426
Accurate passesContext
—
86%
Pass accuracyContext
—
7.01
Team ratingContext
—
13.30
FoulsContext
—
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.00
Red cardsContext
—
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,046 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,046 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
44A. Batagov
15S. Savić
20Wagner Pina
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
5O. Yokuşlu
70K. Olaigbe
9A. Nwakaeme
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanović(G)
21M. Haïdara
5A. Appindangoyé
4M. Wieteska
22A. Oğuz
98J. Nonge Boende
14Show
23S. Yalçın
20Ryan Mendes
9B. Petković
17O. Çağlayan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kocaelispor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
No home games yet this season.
Kocaelispor · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Trabzonspor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 7.60 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Trabzonspor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | — | |
| Match total | 8.20 | — | 7.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | — | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | — | |
| Match total | 4.00 | — | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | — | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | — | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 3.60
Red cards0.00league 0.20
Cards 5+33%league 40%
Fouls22.0league 26.0
Penalties0.33league 0.80
Home wins33%league 40%
Trabzonspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D18 May 25A · BB Bodrumspor1–12
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
TrabzonsporKocaelisporTrabzonspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Kocaelisporscored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
