Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor – 31 Aug 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 4 Sun, Aug 31 · 19:30 Papara Park, Trabzon

Trabzonspor 2nd · 9 pts · 3 played WWW

1–1Full time

Samsunspor 6th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Trabzonspor were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Trabzonspor had 7.1 days of rest, Samsunspor 15.1 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days7.1 · 15.1Matches / 14d2 · 0

Trabzonspor47%

Draw26%

Samsunspor27%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.18

Trabzonspor46%

Draw26%

Samsunspor27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Trabzonspor47%

Draw26%

Samsunspor27%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.18

Trabzonspor40%

Draw27%

Samsunspor34%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.32

Trabzonspor46%

Draw26%

Samsunspor27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Trabzon)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 1.00
Matches 2

Team strength

Trabzonspor

Samsunspor

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

54 AttackIn forecast 15

48 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Trabzonspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Trabzonspor

Samsunspor

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

0.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.57

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.50

100% Scored inContext 100%

100% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.00 ShotsContext 11.00

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

21% On target shareContext 36%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

53% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.00 Shots allowedContext 8.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

2.50 BlocksContext 2.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

100% Save rateContext 100%

54% PossessionIn forecast 62%

410 PassesContext 442

347 Accurate passesContext 374

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.00 FoulsContext 12.50

15.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 2 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

90% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.40 ShotsContext 11.70

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 39%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.43

63% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 12%

3.14 OffsidesContext 2.44

10.50 Shots allowedContext 11.11

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63

2.50 BlocksContext 3.00

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

72% Save rateContext 79%

54% PossessionIn forecast 54%

462 PassesContext 422

401 Accurate passesContext 350

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.96

12.50 FoulsContext 11.50

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Trabzonspor

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Samsunspor

Rest15.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel286 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Trabzonspor	Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Aug	15.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,807 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	12.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Trabzonspor Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1U. Çakır(G)

19M. Eskihellaç 44A. Batagov 15S. Savić 20Wagner Pina

70K. Olaigbe 26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli 5O. Yokuşlu 22O. Zubkov

30E. Onuachu 99F. da Silva

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 4R. van Drongelen 37Ľ. Šatka 18Z. Yavru

55Y. Çift

11E. Kılınç 10J. Ntcham 29A. Makoumbou 23A. Musaba

9M. Mouandilmadji

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Trabzonspor Absences are shown before kick-off

Samsunspor Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Trabzonspor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Samsunspor+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Trabzonspor · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Samsunspor · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Trabzonspor	Samsunspor
Kocaelispor	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Trabzonspor wins1 draws2 Samsunspor wins

Goals per game1.50 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

25 May 2025Trabzonspor2–2Samsunspor
4 Jan 2025Samsunspor2–1Trabzonspor
4 May 2024Samsunspor3–1Trabzonspor
11 Jan 2024Trabzonspor2–1Samsunspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Trabzonspor	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	0.00	0.50
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.81
Over 1.5	0%	50%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	100%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	2

	Trabzonspor	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	0.00	0.50
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.81
Over 1.5	0%	50%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	100%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Trabzonspor	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.50
Corners conceded	5.33	3.50
Match total	9.33	8.00	9.15
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/3	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.67	1.50
Opponent cards	1.33	1.50
Match total	3.00	3.00	4.27
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	50% 1/2

	Trabzonspor	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	5.10
Corners conceded	5.10	5.40
Match total	8.80	10.50	9.15
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.50
Opponent cards	1.60	2.90
Match total	3.40	5.40	4.27
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 2 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.50league 4.11

Red cards0.00league 0.25

Cards 5+50%league 43%

Fouls20.0league 25.7

Penalties1.00league 0.32

Home wins50%league 39%

Trabzonspor

No previous matches with this referee.

Samsunspor

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.