Twente vs PEC Zwolle – 16 Aug 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 16 · 13:30 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Twente 13th · 0 pts · 1 played L

3–1Full time

PEC Zwolle 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were clear favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Twente had 6.9 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 7 and had to travel 63 km.

Away travel63 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Twente68%

Draw19%

PEC Zwolle13%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.84

Twente63%

Draw21%

PEC Zwolle16%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.90

Twente68%

Draw19%

PEC Zwolle13%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.84

Twente60%

Draw22%

PEC Zwolle18%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.95

Twente67%

Draw19%

PEC Zwolle14%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.86

Over 2.5 58% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Enschede)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 80

Team strength

Twente

PEC Zwolle

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

41 AttackIn forecast 17

49 DefenceIn forecast 14

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Twente

PEC Zwolle

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.38 ShotsContext 10.40

6.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

37% On target shareContext 34%

11.63 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

67% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.75 Shots allowedContext 17.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.70

3.63 BlocksContext 4.80

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

66% Save rateContext 64%

52% PossessionIn forecast 45%

449 PassesContext 370

365 Accurate passesContext 289

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.69

8.38 FoulsContext 12.20

8.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente L

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km211 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L9 AugA · Heerenveen0–11.4 xPts

PEC Zwolle L

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel63 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 36 · 0 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

L9 AugH · Ajax0–20.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Twente	PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Aug	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	63 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	211 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	14.2	6.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

29A. Adelgaard 43Ruud Nijstad 3R. Pröpper 28B. van Rooij

42D. Weidmann 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 11D. Rots 7M. Pjaca

9W. Weghorst

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Schendelaar(G)

33D. van der Haar 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8T. Sommer 30R. Thomas

9E. Sørensen 25T. Oosting 11D. Mbayo

10Koen Kostons

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Twente Absences are shown before kick-off

PEC Zwolle Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Twente+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home No home games yet this season.

PEC Zwolle · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Twente wins3 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.00 Over 2.520% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

10 Jan 2026Twente1–1PEC Zwolle
10 Aug 2025PEC Zwolle1–0Twente
13 Apr 2025PEC Zwolle1–1Twente
14 Sep 2024Twente1–1PEC Zwolle
20 Aug 2023Twente3–1PEC Zwolle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Twente	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	3.02
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

	Twente	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	2.30
Match goals	3.30	3.30	3.02
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Twente	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	2.00
Corners conceded	4.00	10.00
Match total	12.00	12.00	10.93
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	3.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	5.00	2.50
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Twente	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	4.00
Corners conceded	4.75	5.80
Match total	10.38	9.80	10.93
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	0.90	1.10
Opponent cards	1.60	1.50
Match total	2.50	2.60	2.50
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 80 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.48league 2.40

Red cards0.19league 0.07

Cards 5+31%league 13%

Fouls19.9league 21.9

Penalties0.18league 0.00

Home wins35%league 33%

Twente8 with this referee

Record2-4-2 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.1 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

D24 Jan 26H · Excelsior0–01
D7 Dec 25A · Utrecht1–12
W5 Oct 25H · Heracles2–11
L14 May 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–31
D10 Nov 24H · Ajax2–21

PEC Zwolle2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L7 Feb 26H · FC Volendam1–23
D20 Jan 24A · AZ Alkmaar2–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.