Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 46). Twente had 7.9 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 6.8 and had to travel 130 km.
Away travel130 kmRest days7.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Twente25%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven55%
Twente25%
Draw25%
PSV Eindhoven51%
Twente25%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven54%
Twente18%
Draw19%
PSV Eindhoven63%
Twente25%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven53%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 111
Team strength
Twente
PSV Eindhoven
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
41
AttackIn forecast
60
49
DefenceIn forecast
64
75
Form indexContext
85
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwentePSV Eindhoven
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.67
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
3.00
0.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
83%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.50
ShotsContext
22.50
7.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.17
36%
On target shareContext
41%
14.67
Shots in the boxContext
15.50
69%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.75
9.83
Shots allowedContext
8.33
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
5.00
BlocksContext
2.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
76%
Save rateContext
67%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
556
PassesContext
618
486
Accurate passesContext
553
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.09
Team ratingContext
7.17
10.00
FoulsContext
8.17
7.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.17
0.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
2.73
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
90%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.63
ShotsContext
18.80
8.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.50
38%
On target shareContext
40%
15.25
Shots in the boxContext
12.80
71%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
18%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.13
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.17
BlocksContext
3.25
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
68%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
523
PassesContext
548
450
Accurate passesContext
484
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.12
8.75
FoulsContext
9.10
7.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
WWDWW
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 75 · 13 pts vs 9.9 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
PSV Eindhoven
WWWDW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel130 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 85 · 13 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 6.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 130 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.2 | 19.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
4Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
10Y. Taha
17F. Thorvaldsen
9W. Weghorst
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
2L. Geertruida
8S. Dest
10P. Wanner
24K. Sano
7R. van Bommel
20G. Til
5I. Perišić
9R. Pepi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- PSV Eindhoven+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Twente | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | D 2–2 A | W 5–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Twente wins0 draws5 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game0.60 – 3.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 17 May 2026PSV Eindhoven5–1Twente
- 17 Aug 2025Twente0–2PSV Eindhoven
- 24 Apr 2025Twente1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 6 Dec 2024PSV Eindhoven6–1Twente
- 25 Nov 2023Twente0–3PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 4.83 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Twente | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 4.60 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.67 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 11.17 | 9.25 | 10.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.83 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.67 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Twente | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.25 | 10.50 | 10.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 111 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 2.65
Red cards0.12league 0.05
Cards 5+41%league 12%
Fouls22.9league 20.8
Penalties0.27league 0.22
Home wins49%league 28%
Twente8 with this referee
Record4-1-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.5
Pens for · against4 · 2
Reds1
- L26 Oct 25H · Ajax2–30
- L16 Mar 25H · Feyenoord2–62
- W23 Nov 24A · Fortuna Sittard2–12
- L6 Oct 24A · Feyenoord1–22
- W17 Sep 24H · Heerenveen2–02
PSV Eindhoven13 with this referee
Record7-4-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W4 Apr 26H · Utrecht4–30
- W6 Dec 25A · Heerenveen2–00
- W9 Nov 25A · AZ Alkmaar5–11
- D21 Sep 25H · Ajax2–21
- W18 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente6 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
PSV Eindhoven6 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
4
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 34 · conceded 12
6
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
3
61-75
9
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
