Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 23). Twente had 5.2 days of rest, Telstar 6 and had to travel 155 km.
Away travel155 kmRest days5.2 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Twente53%
Draw25%
Telstar22%
Twente53%
Draw25%
Telstar22%
Twente54%
Draw24%
Telstar22%
Twente46%
Draw26%
Telstar28%
Twente52%
Draw25%
Telstar23%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 10
Team strength
Twente
Telstar
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
41
AttackIn forecast
24
49
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteTelstar
1.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.91
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.97
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
73%
Scored inContext
64%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
16.64
ShotsContext
14.64
5.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.55
36%
On target shareContext
38%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.55
61%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.11
10.55
Shots allowedContext
15.64
3.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.09
3.18
BlocksContext
4.09
2.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.09
58%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
441
PassesContext
359
356
Accurate passesContext
282
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.64
FoulsContext
12.18
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.82
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
80%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.70
ShotsContext
14.30
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
37%
On target shareContext
39%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
62%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.90
Shots allowedContext
15.70
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.20
BlocksContext
4.10
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
59%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
441
PassesContext
359
357
Accurate passesContext
279
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.30
FoulsContext
12.20
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Telstar
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel155 km122 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 155 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 227 km | 122 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 15.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
43Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
14K. Hlynsson
27S. Ørjasæter
9R. van Wolfswinkel
7M. Pjaca
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
4G. Offerhaus
21D. Koswal
2J. Hardeveld
17N. Rossen
8T. Owusu
11T. Noslin
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
27P. Brouwer
7S. Hetli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Telstar+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 2.00
Telstar · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Twente | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Ajax | L 2–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 5–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Excelsior | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 10 of 24 · 1.25 per game | 4 of 24 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.82 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.91 | |
| Match goals | 3.45 | 3.18 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 55% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 55% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 36% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Twente | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.27 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.55 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 7.82 | 11.90 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 27% 3/11 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 2/11 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 1.36 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 2.91 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 5/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 5/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Twente | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.22 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 3.34
Red cards0.10league 0.19
Cards 5+10%league 32%
Fouls28.0league 22.2
Penalties0.30league 0.29
Home wins30%league 48%
TwenteNo previous matches with this referee.
Telstar1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Sep 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente11 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Telstar11 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
