Twente vs Utrecht – 15 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Mar 15 · 11:15 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Twente 5th · 44 pts · 26 played WDWWW

First leg1–1 0–2Full time

Utrecht 9th · 35 pts · 26 played WWDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were slight favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Utrecht. Twente had 6.9 days of rest, Utrecht 8.7 and had to travel 122 km.

Away travel122 kmRest days6.9 · 8.7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Twente52%

Draw24%

Utrecht24%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.14

Twente52%

Draw25%

Utrecht23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.06

Twente52%

Draw25%

Utrecht24%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.13

Twente44%

Draw26%

Utrecht30%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.28

Twente51%

Draw25%

Utrecht24%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.11

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Enschede)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal

Cards per match 2.6
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 47

Team strength

Twente

Utrecht

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

41 AttackIn forecast 32

49 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Twente

Utrecht

1.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.46

1.04 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.19

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

81% Scored inContext 81%

27% Clean sheetsContext 19%

17.77 ShotsContext 14.23

6.42 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.62

36% On target shareContext 32%

11.42 Shots in the boxContext 9.65

65% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 10%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.56

10.08 Shots allowedContext 11.69

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

3.20 BlocksContext 3.85

2.42 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.15

65% Save rateContext 72%

54% PossessionIn forecast 48%

457 PassesContext 399

371 Accurate passesContext 318

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.38 FoulsContext 11.00

9.54 Fouls sufferedContext 11.15

1.46 Yellow cardsContext 1.35

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

90% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

18.60 ShotsContext 13.20

7.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

40% On target shareContext 32%

12.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

66% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 8%

1.60 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.40 Shots allowedContext 11.40

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.22 BlocksContext 3.14

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

74% Save rateContext 74%

53% PossessionIn forecast 48%

455 PassesContext 408

367 Accurate passesContext 326

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.84

9.10 FoulsContext 10.80

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km100 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Utrecht

Rest8.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel122 km218 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Twente	Utrecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar	8.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	122 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	100 km	218 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 43Ruud Nijstad 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki 14K. Hlynsson

7M. Pjaca 10S. Lammers 11D. Rots

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1V. Barkas(G)

16S. El Karouani 3M. van der Hoorn 40M. Didden 23N. Vesterlund

21G. Zechiël 27A. Engwanda

10Y. Cathline 20D. de Wit 77Ángel Alarcón

18A. Stepanov

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Twente Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Utrecht Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Twente+0.5 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Utrecht-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home 1.92points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-2
Scored: 1.69
Conceded: 0.92

Utrecht · Away 1.08points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-5
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 1.46

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Twente	Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H	D 2–2 A
Feyenoord	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A
Groningen	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H
Telstar	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Heerenveen	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
NAC Breda	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
Excelsior	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 4–1 H
Heracles	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 AW 4–0 H
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 HL 1–4 A
FC Volendam	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H
Ajax	L 2–3 H	W 2–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	D 3–3 A	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 3–2 H	L 0–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 5–1 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 H
Points	43 of 75 · 1.72 per game	34 of 75 · 1.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Twente wins2 draws2 Utrecht wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.520% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

7 Dec 2025Utrecht1–1Twente
11 May 2025Twente2–0Utrecht
1 Sep 2024Utrecht2–1Twente
18 Feb 2024Twente0–1Utrecht
5 Nov 2023Utrecht1–1Twente

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Twente	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.73	1.46
Conceded per game	1.04	1.19
Match goals	2.77	2.65	2.95
Over 1.5	81%	77%
Over 2.5	42%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	31%	31%
Both teams scored	62%	65%	58%
Clean sheets	27%	19%
Failed to score	19%	19%
Games	26	26

	Twente	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.10
Conceded per game	0.70	1.20
Match goals	2.70	2.30	2.95
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Twente	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	5.04	5.13
Corners conceded	3.92	4.57
Match total	8.96	9.70	10.32
Over 8.5	44% 11/25	61% 14/23
Over 9.5	32% 8/25	48% 11/23
Over 10.5	28% 7/25	39% 9/23
Cards
Cards	1.58	1.38
Opponent cards	1.92	2.00
Match total	3.50	3.38	3.44
Over 3.5	38% 10/26	46% 12/26
Over 4.5	31% 8/26	19% 5/26

	Twente	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	5.75
Corners conceded	4.22	4.75
Match total	10.00	10.50	10.32
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.20
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	2.60	3.10	3.44
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.51league 3.25

Red cards0.11league 0.18

Cards 5+23%league 28%

Fouls19.8league 21.4

Penalties0.23league 0.24

Home wins57%league 44%

Twente4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

D18 Oct 25A · NEC Nijmegen3–33
W11 May 25H · Utrecht2–00
W9 Mar 25H · Almere City FC1–00
L18 Feb 24H · Utrecht0–10

Utrecht5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 0

L18 Jan 26A · FC Volendam1–23
L14 Sep 25H · Groningen0–10
L11 May 25A · Twente0–22
W18 Feb 24A · Twente1–01
D12 Nov 23H · Excelsior2–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.