Twente
Attack+5%
Defense risk−9%
Our take
Twente were clear favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Twente were without L. Unnerstall and S. Lemkin. Utrecht were without A. Engwanda and A. Stepanov. Twente had 8 days of rest, Utrecht 7.3 and had to travel 122 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel122 kmRest days8 · 7.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Twente65%
Draw19%
Utrecht16%
Twente54%
Draw25%
Utrecht22%
Twente64%
Draw19%
Utrecht16%
Twente56%
Draw22%
Utrecht22%
Twente63%
Draw20%
Utrecht17%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
11°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 99%
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 85
Team strength
Twente
Utrecht
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
41
AttackIn forecast
32
49
DefenceIn forecast
31
69
Form indexContext
40
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack−18%
Defense risk+19%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
TwenteUtrecht
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.13
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
88%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.13
ShotsContext
12.50
7.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
36%
On target shareContext
34%
13.38
Shots in the boxContext
10.29
66%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.50
Shots allowedContext
17.38
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.25
4.67
BlocksContext
4.13
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
55%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
524
PassesContext
394
451
Accurate passesContext
316
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.51
11.38
FoulsContext
17.00
8.13
Fouls sufferedContext
10.63
0.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.70
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
0.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
20.13
ShotsContext
13.90
7.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
32%
13.38
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
66%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.50
Shots allowedContext
16.40
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
4.67
BlocksContext
3.80
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
73%
Save rateContext
57%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
524
PassesContext
399
451
Accurate passesContext
325
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.61
11.38
FoulsContext
15.50
8.13
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
DWWWD
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km306 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 11 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Utrecht
LDWLW
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel122 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 40 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 7.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 122 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 306 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
16J. Drommel(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
9W. Weghorst
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
22S. Padt(G)
5N. Panagiotou
3M. Didden
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
38O. Agougil
8J. van Overeem
23N. Vesterlund
11Ángel Alarcón
20D. de Wit
10Y. Cathline
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −1.4% · Defence line −24.0% of weighted minutes
- DEF L. Unnerstall Starter 7.02 Def −12.8%
- DEF S. Lemkin Starter 6.81 Def −10.3%
- MID M. Bruns Rotation 6.92 Att −1.4% Def −0.9%
Utrecht
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −23.8% · Defence line −6.7% of weighted minutes
- MID A. Engwanda Starter 6.84 Att −9.8% Def −6.2%
- ATT A. Stepanov Starter 7.08 Att −13.1%
- MID V. Jensen Depth 7.02 Att −0.3% Def −0.2%
- MID K. Paredes Depth 6.83 Att −0.3% Def −0.2%
- MID M. Jonathans Depth 6.60 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
- ATT N. Ohio Depth 6.70 Att −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Utrecht · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Twente | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | W 3–2 H | L 1–6 H |
| Groningen | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Twente wins2 draws3 Utrecht wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.17
Over 2.517%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 15 Mar 2026Twente0–2Utrecht
- 7 Dec 2025Utrecht1–1Twente
- 11 May 2025Twente2–0Utrecht
- 1 Sep 2024Utrecht2–1Twente
- 18 Feb 2024Twente0–1Utrecht
- 5 Nov 2023Utrecht1–1Twente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.88 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 88% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Twente | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 4.40 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 9.58 | 10.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.88 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.38 | 3.13 | 2.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Twente | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 9.66 | 10.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 2.70 | 2.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.41league 2.76
Red cards0.18league 0.08
Cards 5+29%league 15%
Fouls20.2league 21.3
Penalties0.19league 0.27
Home wins35%league 33%
Twente9 with this referee
Record3-4-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W16 Aug 26H · PEC Zwolle3–10
- D24 Jan 26H · Excelsior0–01
- D7 Dec 25A · Utrecht1–12
- W5 Oct 25H · Heracles2–11
- L14 May 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–31
Utrecht9 with this referee
Record5-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D7 Dec 25H · Twente1–11
- L17 Aug 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–23
- W25 Apr 25A · Waalwijk4–02
- W9 Mar 25A · Willem II3–22
- D24 Jan 25A · Heracles1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente8 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Utrecht8 games · scored 14 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 27
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
