Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 30). Udinese had 12.9 days of rest, Bologna 13 and had to travel 230 km.
Away travel230 kmRest days12.9 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Udinese26%
Draw27%
Bologna47%
Udinese26%
Draw26%
Bologna48%
Udinese25%
Draw27%
Bologna47%
Udinese20%
Draw26%
Bologna54%
Udinese27%
Draw26%
Bologna47%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Udinese
Bologna
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
22
AttackIn forecast
35
18
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseBologna
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.73
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
82%
Scored inContext
73%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
11.18
ShotsContext
12.91
3.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
33%
On target shareContext
31%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.09
54%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.56
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.18
BlocksContext
3.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
64%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
362
PassesContext
428
296
Accurate passesContext
358
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.64
FoulsContext
13.64
11.82
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.00
ShotsContext
14.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
34%
On target shareContext
33%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
54%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.38
12.30
Shots allowedContext
8.20
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.30
BlocksContext
3.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
63%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
350
PassesContext
441
284
Accurate passesContext
374
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.90
FoulsContext
13.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km936 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel230 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 13Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 230 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 936 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
13N. Bertola
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
32J. Ekkelenkamp
19K. Ehizibue
10N. Zaniolo
9K. Davis
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
14T. Heggem
16N. Casale
29L. De Silvestri
4T. Pobega
6N. Moro
30B. Domínguez
80G. Fabbian
7R. Orsolini
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bologna-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Bologna · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lecce | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Udinese wins5 draws2 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 28 Apr 2025Udinese0–0Bologna
- 18 Aug 2024Bologna1–1Udinese
- 28 Apr 2024Bologna1–1Udinese
- 30 Dec 2023Udinese3–0Bologna
- 2 Apr 2023Bologna3–0Udinese
- 15 Jan 2023Udinese1–2Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 0.73 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.36 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 45% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 36% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Udinese | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.09 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.54 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.64 | 2.91 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Udinese | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.40 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.30 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.90
Red cards0.00league 0.12
Cards 5+0%league 39%
Fouls24.0league 26.0
Penalties0.00league 0.31
Home wins50%league 37%
UdineseNo previous matches with this referee.
BolognaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese11 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Bologna11 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
