Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Udinese were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Cagliari. Udinese had 4.8 days of rest, Cagliari 6.8 and had to travel 831 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel831 kmRest days4.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Udinese44%
Draw25%
Cagliari31%
Udinese47%
Draw25%
Cagliari28%
Udinese44%
Draw25%
Cagliari31%
Udinese37%
Draw25%
Cagliari39%
Udinese45%
Draw24%
Cagliari31%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
Warm
26°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 46%
Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 58
Team strength
Udinese
Cagliari
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
22
AttackIn forecast
31
18
DefenceIn forecast
31
39
Form indexContext
79
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseCagliari
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
2.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.25
ShotsContext
12.25
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
42%
On target shareContext
39%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
73%
Box shareContext
57%
18%
ConversionContext
8%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.67
20.00
Shots allowedContext
18.75
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
6.75
BlocksContext
4.50
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
67%
Save rateContext
81%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
378
PassesContext
417
305
Accurate passesContext
357
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.75
FoulsContext
10.75
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.25
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.50
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
40%
On target shareContext
33%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
69%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.13
OffsidesContext
3.14
15.50
Shots allowedContext
14.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.60
BlocksContext
3.50
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
407
PassesContext
405
340
Accurate passesContext
338
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.90
FoulsContext
9.60
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
DWLL
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 4 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Sep | 6.8Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 831 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 642 km | 1,441 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 23.2 | 22.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
77E. Ebosse
27C. Kabasele
14J. Abankwah
11H. Kamara
8J. Karlström
38L. Miller
23M. Vojvoda
32J. Ekkelenkamp
10N. Zaniolo
9K. Davis
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
2Zé Pedro
8M. Adopo
14A. Deiola
6H. Winks
4Alessandro Romano
70D. Maldini
31Paul Mendy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Cagliari+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Cagliari · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 3–5 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Udinese wins3 draws0 Cagliari wins
Goals per game2.13 – 0.50
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 9 May 2026Cagliari0–2Udinese
- 5 Oct 2025Udinese1–1Cagliari
- 3 May 2025Cagliari1–2Udinese
- 25 Oct 2024Udinese2–0Cagliari
- 18 Feb 2024Udinese1–1Cagliari
- 17 Sep 2023Cagliari0–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 1.50 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 25% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Udinese | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.75 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.75 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.25 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Udinese | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.40 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.30 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 3.12
Red cards0.14league 0.02
Cards 5+31%league 20%
Fouls23.6league 22.2
Penalties0.21league 0.07
Home wins40%league 44%
Udinese8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds2
- L17 May 26H · Cremonese0–11
- W26 Jan 26A · Verona3–10
- W9 Dec 24A · Monza2–12
- W25 Oct 24H · Cagliari2–02
- D2 Mar 24H · Salernitana1–16
Cagliari3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L3 Feb 25H · Lazio1–20
- L25 Oct 24A · Udinese0–23
- W14 Jan 24H · Bologna2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese4 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Cagliari4 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
