Udinese vs Genoa – 8 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 14 Mon, Dec 8 · 17:00 Bluenergy Stadium, Udine

Udinese 11th · 18 pts · 13 played LWLLW

1–2Full time

Genoa 17th · 11 pts · 13 played LWDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Udinese were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Udinese had 9.1 days of rest, Genoa 9.1 and had to travel 384 km.

Away travel384 kmRest days9.1 · 9.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Udinese43%

Draw28%

Genoa29%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.09

Udinese44%

Draw27%

Genoa29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Udinese43%

Draw28%

Genoa29%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.08

Udinese36%

Draw29%

Genoa35%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.22

Udinese44%

Draw27%

Genoa29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.20

Over 2.5 45% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Udine)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 66

Team strength

Udinese

Genoa

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

22 AttackIn forecast 23

18 DefenceIn forecast 44

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Udinese

Genoa

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.54 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.54

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

77% Scored inContext 62%

23% Clean sheetsContext 15%

11.46 ShotsContext 11.46

3.77 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.85

33% On target shareContext 34%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.15

56% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.38

12.00 Shots allowedContext 10.54

4.08 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.64

3.46 BlocksContext 3.70

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.82

65% Save rateContext 61%

47% PossessionIn forecast 49%

355 PassesContext 369

288 Accurate passesContext 292

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.54 FoulsContext 14.46

11.69 Fouls sufferedContext 14.54

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.62

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.30 ShotsContext 12.40

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

33% On target shareContext 33%

6.89 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

58% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.38

12.20 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

3.80 BlocksContext 3.00

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

65% Save rateContext 59%

47% PossessionIn forecast 49%

352 PassesContext 365

285 Accurate passesContext 290

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.75

14.60 FoulsContext 14.20

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Udinese

Rest9.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km535 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Genoa

Rest9.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel384 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Udinese	Genoa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.1Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Nov	9.1Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	384 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	535 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Udinese Confirmed XI

3-5-2

40M. Okoye(G)

28O. Solet 27C. Kabasele 13N. Bertola

33J. Zemura 32J. Ekkelenkamp 8J. Karlström 24J. Piotrowski 59A. Zanoli

9K. Davis 10N. Zaniolo

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1N. Leali(G)

22J. Vásquez 34S. Otoa 27A. Marcandalli

3Aarón Martín 2M. Thorsby 73P. Masini 17R. Malinovskyi 15B. Norton-Cuffy

29L. Colombo 9Vítinha

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Udinese Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Genoa Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Udinese-0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Genoa+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Udinese · Home 1.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Genoa · Away 0.83points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.83

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Udinese	Genoa
Parma	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 H
Bologna	L 0–3 H	L 1–2 A
Juventus	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Lecce	W 3–2 H	D 0–0 H
Cremonese	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 H
Cagliari	D 1–1 H	D 3–3 A
Sassuolo	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 A
Verona	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Points	9 of 24 · 1.13 per game	9 of 24 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Udinese wins3 draws3 Genoa wins

Goals per game0.33 – 1.17 Over 2.517% Both scored17% Clean sheets33% · 83%

4 Apr 2025Genoa1–0Udinese
1 Dec 2024Udinese0–2Genoa
24 Feb 2024Genoa2–0Udinese
1 Oct 2023Udinese2–2Genoa
22 Jan 2022Genoa0–0Udinese
28 Nov 2021Udinese0–0Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Udinese	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	1.00
Conceded per game	1.54	1.54
Match goals	2.62	2.54	2.46
Over 1.5	85%	77%
Over 2.5	46%	62%	45%
Over 3.5	23%	15%
Both teams scored	54%	62%	50%
Clean sheets	23%	15%
Failed to score	23%	38%
Games	13	13

	Udinese	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.20
Conceded per game	1.80	1.80
Match goals	2.80	3.00	2.46
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	45%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Udinese	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.92	3.56
Corners conceded	4.75	5.22
Match total	9.67	8.78	8.83
Over 8.5	50% 6/12	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	42% 5/12	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	42% 5/12	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.69
Opponent cards	1.62	2.46
Match total	3.62	5.15	4.05
Over 3.5	54% 7/13	92% 12/13
Over 4.5	23% 3/13	54% 7/13

	Udinese	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	3.86
Corners conceded	4.00	5.14
Match total	9.11	9.00	8.83
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.90
Opponent cards	1.70	2.30
Match total	3.50	5.20	4.05
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 66 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.18league 3.91

Red cards0.17league 0.15

Cards 5+67%league 38%

Fouls24.9league 26.0

Penalties0.18league 0.33

Home wins36%league 40%

Udinese6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

D28 Apr 25H · Bologna0–03
W1 Mar 25H · Parma1–01
L20 Jan 24H · AC Milan2–36
D3 Dec 23H · Verona3–32
W4 Sep 22H · AS Roma4–03

Genoa3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W14 Mar 25H · Lecce2–13
L30 Apr 22A · Sampdoria0–11
L17 Jan 22A · Fiorentina0–63

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.