Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Udinese. Udinese had 9.1 days of rest, Lazio 8 and had to travel 468 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel468 kmRest days9.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Udinese39%
Draw26%
Lazio35%
Udinese36%
Draw26%
Lazio38%
Udinese37%
Draw26%
Lazio36%
Udinese32%
Draw26%
Lazio43%
Udinese39%
Draw25%
Lazio35%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
Warm
27°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 51%
Referee · ItalyParide Tremolada
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 10
Team strength
Udinese
Lazio
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
22
AttackIn forecast
53
18
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseLazio
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
14.50
ShotsContext
12.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
28%
On target shareContext
20%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
74%
Box shareContext
52%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
—
17.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
5.50
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
73%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
412
PassesContext
401
327
Accurate passesContext
341
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.50
FoulsContext
18.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
10.70
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
36%
On target shareContext
41%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
69%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.40
14.10
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
4.30
BlocksContext
2.50
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
74%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
412
PassesContext
481
347
Accurate passesContext
426
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.00
FoulsContext
13.20
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
DW
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km624 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 57 · 4 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 8Serie A 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 468 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 624 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
77E. Ebosse
28O. Solet
14J. Abankwah
11H. Kamara
24J. Piotrowski
8J. Karlström
23M. Vojvoda
46Unai Gómez
32J. Ekkelenkamp
9K. Davis
Lazio
Confirmed XI
35C. Mandas(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
5D. Doekhi
15R. Floriani Mussolini
24K. Taylor
21R. Belahyane
16D. Frattesi
10M. Zaccagni
9A. Pinamonti
11G. Isaksen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lazio-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lazio · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Udinese wins6 draws2 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 27 Apr 2026Lazio3–3Udinese
- 27 Dec 2025Udinese1–1Lazio
- 10 Mar 2025Lazio1–1Udinese
- 24 Aug 2024Udinese2–1Lazio
- 11 Mar 2024Lazio1–2Udinese
- 7 Jan 2024Udinese1–2Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Udinese | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.00 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 6.00 | 3.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Udinese | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.56 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.50 | 3.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paride Tremolada Italy · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 3.21
Red cards0.20league 0.00
Cards 5+60%league 14%
Fouls24.8league 22.7
Penalties0.50league 0.00
Home wins50%league 41%
Udinese2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D25 Aug 25H · Verona1–13
- D23 Oct 23H · Lecce1–13
Lazio4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L14 Sep 25A · Sassuolo0–13
- D10 Jan 25H · Como1–14
- W18 Aug 24H · Venezia3–11
- D26 May 24H · Sassuolo1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Lazio2 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
