Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Udinese were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Udinese. Udinese had 4.8 days of rest, Torino 5.9 and had to travel 446 km.
Away travel446 kmRest days4.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Udinese43%
Draw29%
Torino28%
Udinese45%
Draw27%
Torino28%
Udinese45%
Draw28%
Torino27%
Udinese36%
Draw29%
Torino35%
Udinese44%
Draw27%
Torino29%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiuseppe Mucera
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 2
Team strength
Udinese
Torino
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
22
AttackIn forecast
39
18
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseTorino
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
74%
Scored inContext
71%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
11.06
ShotsContext
11.50
3.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
33%
On target shareContext
35%
6.59
Shots in the boxContext
7.32
58%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.96
OffsidesContext
1.90
12.85
Shots allowedContext
13.12
4.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.62
BlocksContext
3.85
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.84
66%
Save rateContext
63%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
358
PassesContext
362
290
Accurate passesContext
289
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.44
FoulsContext
13.44
11.32
Fouls sufferedContext
10.35
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
10.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
37%
On target shareContext
31%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
66%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.70
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.20
BlocksContext
3.90
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
71%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
371
PassesContext
361
308
Accurate passesContext
292
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.50
FoulsContext
12.30
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km936 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Torino
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel446 km367 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Apr | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 446 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 936 km | 367 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
38L. Miller
19K. Ehizibue
32J. Ekkelenkamp
10N. Zaniolo
18A. Buksa
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
77E. Ebosse
23Saúl Coco
35L. Marianucci
33Rafael Obrador
66G. Gineitis
6E. İlkhan
22C. Casadei
20V. Lazaro
10N. Vlašić
18G. Simeone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-2.2 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Torino+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.18points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-7
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.18
Torino · Away
1.00points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-8
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.76
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | D 3–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A |
| AC Milan | W 3–0 AL 0–3 H | L 2–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Como | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–6 AL 1–5 H |
| Genoa | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Juventus | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Bologna | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Verona | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 41 of 99 · 1.24 per game | 41 of 99 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Udinese wins2 draws5 Torino wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.44
Over 2.544%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets11% · 33%
- 7 Jan 2026Torino1–2Udinese
- 23 Apr 2025Torino2–0Udinese
- 29 Dec 2024Udinese2–2Torino
- 16 Mar 2024Udinese0–2Torino
- 23 Dec 2023Torino1–1Udinese
- 5 Feb 2023Torino1–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.79 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 62% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 29% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Udinese | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 8.42 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 15/32 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 13/32 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 12/32 | 32% 10/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.76 | 1.47 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.38 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 18/34 | 50% 17/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 11/34 | 21% 7/34 | |
| Udinese | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.56 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Mucera Italy · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.71
Red cards0.00league 0.18
Cards 5+0%league 35%
Fouls25.0league 24.8
Penalties0.50league 0.29
Home wins50%league 40%
UdineseNo previous matches with this referee.
TorinoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese34 games · scored 41 · conceded 46
4
6
0-15
7
6
16-30
7
6
31-45
8
10
46-60
8
7
61-75
7
11
76-90
Torino34 games · scored 39 · conceded 56
4
5
0-15
7
12
16-30
5
10
31-45
7
9
46-60
5
12
61-75
11
8
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
