Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Anderlecht. Union St. Gilloise had 15.1 days of rest, Anderlecht 2.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days15.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d0 · 2
Union St. Gilloise53%
Draw23%
Anderlecht24%
Union St. Gilloise56%
Draw23%
Anderlecht21%
Union St. Gilloise53%
Draw23%
Anderlecht24%
Union St. Gilloise45%
Draw25%
Anderlecht30%
Union St. Gilloise53%
Draw24%
Anderlecht23%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 57
Team strength
Union St. Gilloise
Anderlecht
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
62
AttackIn forecast
37
74
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseAnderlecht
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
2.16
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
+1.16
Goals minus xGContext
-1.16
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.00
ShotsContext
24.00
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
46%
On target shareContext
27%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
15.50
78%
Box shareContext
67%
18%
ConversionContext
4%
4.00
OffsidesContext
—
11.50
Shots allowedContext
7.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
4.50
BlocksContext
—
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.00
86%
Save rateContext
40%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
491
PassesContext
629
406
Accurate passesContext
543
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.08
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.00
FoulsContext
13.50
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.82
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.30
ShotsContext
19.60
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
37%
On target shareContext
30%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.25
73%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.80
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.17
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
59%
Save rateContext
50%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
429
PassesContext
466
351
Accurate passesContext
387
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.89
FoulsContext
14.50
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
WD
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 4 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 18 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 10,674 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
80O. Kričfaluši
29M. Sylla
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
6K. Van de Perre
8A. Zorgane
27L. Patris
23B. Zeneli
13K. Rodríguez
9Mateo Biondic
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
27L. Pétrot
4G. Biancone
79A. Maamar
61K. Nga
55M. Kana
24E. Llansana
18L. Ambros
14D. Sikan
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Anderlecht · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Union St. Gilloise wins1 draws1 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.83
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 24 May 2026Union St. Gilloise5–1Anderlecht
- 26 Apr 2026Anderlecht1–3Union St. Gilloise
- 30 Nov 2025Anderlecht1–0Union St. Gilloise
- 31 Aug 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0Anderlecht
- 28 Jan 2024Anderlecht2–2Union St. Gilloise
- 28 Jul 2023Union St. Gilloise2–0Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 11.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 12.00 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.57 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 10.28 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.90 | 2.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.96league 2.55
Red cards0.32league 0.16
Cards 5+65%league 19%
Fouls23.1league 20.7
Penalties0.23league 0.29
Home wins46%league 48%
Union St. Gilloise8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W24 May 26H · Anderlecht5–12
- W19 Apr 26H · Club Brugge KV2–13
- W7 Mar 26H · Genk2–13
- D14 Feb 26A · Standard Liege1–14
- D14 Dec 25A · Charleroi1–12
Anderlecht9 with this referee
Record4-1-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds2
- W9 Aug 26H · RAAL La Louvière2–12
- L24 May 26A · Union St. Gilloise1–53
- W12 Apr 26H · Gent3–11
- L18 Jan 26A · Gent2–43
- L7 Dec 25A · KVC Westerlo0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Anderlecht2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
7
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
