Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Sep 27 · 19:45 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 20 pts · 8 played
2–0Full time
KVC Westerlo 10th · 10 pts · 8 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 23). Union St. Gilloise had 6.3 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 3 and had to travel 48 km.

Away travel48 kmRest days6.3 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 3
Union St. Gilloise69%
Draw20%
KVC Westerlo12%
Expected goals 2.18 – 0.80
Union St. Gilloise68%
Draw20%
KVC Westerlo12%
Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82
Union St. Gilloise69%
Draw20%
KVC Westerlo12%
Expected goals 2.18 – 0.80
Union St. Gilloise61%
Draw22%
KVC Westerlo16%
Expected goals 1.95 – 0.90
Union St. Gilloise68%
Draw20%
KVC Westerlo12%
Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82
Over 2.5 57% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)

No weather data yet

RefereeNicolas Laforge
  • Cards per match 4.7
  • Penalties per match 0.46
  • Matches 26

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseKVC Westerlo
62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
62 AttackIn forecast 42
74 DefenceIn forecast 32
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

KVC Westerlo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseKVC Westerlo
2.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25
2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.66
0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26
-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.34
88% Scored inContext 75%
63% Clean sheetsContext 25%
15.50 ShotsContext 16.13
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
45% On target shareContext 34%
11.86 Shots in the boxContext 11.25
75% Box shareContext 71%
14% ConversionContext 12%
3.43 OffsidesContext 1.25
9.00 Shots allowedContext 13.13
3.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75
1.63 BlocksContext 4.29
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63
80% Save rateContext 55%
56% PossessionIn forecast 46%
446 PassesContext 362
367 Accurate passesContext 286
82% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.83
12.00 FoulsContext 12.38
9.13 Fouls sufferedContext 11.13
2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
2.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.66
0.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26
-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
90% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.50 ShotsContext 16.20
7.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20
43% On target shareContext 32%
13.22 Shots in the boxContext 11.10
75% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 11%
3.89 OffsidesContext 1.17
8.80 Shots allowedContext 12.40
3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
1.60 BlocksContext 3.78
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30
81% Save rateContext 52%
55% PossessionIn forecast 46%
458 PassesContext 374
377 Accurate passesContext 297
82% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.82
12.60 FoulsContext 11.70
9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km164 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
KVC Westerlo
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel48 km237 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise KVC Westerlo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Sep3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km48 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways164 km237 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 32 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.97.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
37K. Scherpen(G)
26R. Sykes 16C. Burgess 5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang 4M. Rasmussen 8A. Zorgane 25A. Khalaili
17R. Schoofs
12P. David 30R. Florucz
KVC Westerlo Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
99A. Jungdal(G)
25T. Rommens 5Seiji Kimura 40E. Bayram 22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort 34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer 13I. Sakamoto 7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
3.33
Conceded
0.00
KVC Westerlo · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.75
Conceded
3.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentUnion St. GilloiseKVC Westerlo
Anderlecht W 2–0 H L 2–5 A
Standard Liege W 3–0 H L 0–2 H
Antwerp D 1–1 A W 2–0 H
Points7 of 9 · 2.33 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Union St. Gilloise wins1 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 10 Feb 2024Union St. Gilloise2–2KVC Westerlo
  • 29 Oct 2023KVC Westerlo1–3Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 2.132.00
Conceded per game 0.502.25
Match goals 2.634.25 2.98
Over 1.5 75%88%
Over 2.5 50%63% 57%
Over 3.5 25%50%
Both teams scored 38%50% 49%
Clean sheets 63%25%
Failed to score 13%25%
Games88
Union St. GilloiseKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 2.132.00
Conceded per game 0.502.25
Match goals 2.634.25 2.98
Over 1.5 75%88%
Over 2.5 50%63% 57%
Over 3.5 25%50%
Both teams scored 38%50% 49%
Clean sheets 63%25%
Failed to score 13%25%
Games88

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won6.005.25
Corners conceded4.134.63
Match total10.139.889.62
Over 8.563% 5/863% 5/8
Over 9.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 10.550% 4/850% 4/8
Cards
Cards2.131.50
Opponent cards2.251.88
Match total4.383.384.08
Over 3.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 4.563% 5/825% 2/8
Union St. GilloiseKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won6.705.00
Corners conceded4.104.60
Match total10.809.609.62
Over 8.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 10.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.301.60
Opponent cards2.501.70
Match total4.803.304.08
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nicolas Laforge 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.58league 3.84
Red cards0.15league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls22.5league 22.9
Penalties0.46league 0.31
Home wins42%league 42%
Union St. Gilloise3 with this referee
Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against3 · 0
  • W25 Feb 24H · Standard Liege2–11
  • W31 Jan 24H · RWDM3–22
  • W23 Dec 23A · AS Eupen2–11
KVC Westerlo2 with this referee
Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1
  • L20 Jan 24A · Club Brugge KV0–33
  • D10 Nov 23H · St. Truiden3–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise8 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
4 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
KVC Westerlo8 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
3 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 6 31-45
4 2 46-60
4 2 61-75
2 5 76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
5 0-15
4 16-30
1 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 61-75
5 4 76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
3 1 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 7 31-45
4 2 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Anderlecht 11 Zulte Waregem Antwerp 20 Standard Liege Club Brugge KV 12 Union St. Gilloise KVC Westerlo 20 St. Truiden Genk 12 Cercle Brugge Gent 24 Charleroi KV Mechelen 02