Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 30). Union St. Gilloise had 3.9 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 6 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days3.9 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 1
Union St. Gilloise65%
Draw20%
Zulte Waregem15%
Union St. Gilloise65%
Draw20%
Zulte Waregem15%
Union St. Gilloise65%
Draw20%
Zulte Waregem15%
Union St. Gilloise57%
Draw23%
Zulte Waregem20%
Union St. Gilloise65%
Draw20%
Zulte Waregem15%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 51
Team strength
Union St. Gilloise
Zulte Waregem
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
62
AttackIn forecast
27
74
DefenceIn forecast
31
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseZulte Waregem
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.78
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.10
ShotsContext
12.30
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
36%
On target shareContext
36%
11.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
71%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.80
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.63
BlocksContext
3.11
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
53%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
417
PassesContext
405
335
Accurate passesContext
318
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.67
FoulsContext
10.50
11.11
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
W
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,914 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
- W8 AugA · KVC Westerlo5–11.9 xPts
Zulte Waregem
W
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel65 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
- W9 AugH · Genk2–11.3 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug | 6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 9 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,914 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
70H. Koffi(G)
48F. Leysen
55Nikki Havenaar
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
17R. Schoofs
6K. Van de Perre
27L. Patris
23B. Zeneli
30R. Florucz
7M. Fuseini
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
1L. Bostyn(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
12W. Paugain
36S. Ujka
6E. Lofolomo
8T. Claes
11M. Aké
18A. Ementa
20T. Hedl
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
No home games yet this season.
Zulte Waregem · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws0 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 20 Dec 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0Zulte Waregem
- 1 Nov 2025Zulte Waregem1–4Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 6.00 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 9.30 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 3.00
Red cards0.25league 0.20
Cards 5+35%league 30%
Fouls24.1league 21.1
Penalties0.35league 0.30
Home wins43%league 60%
Union St. Gilloise6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds1
- L17 May 26A · Club Brugge KV0–52
- D22 Apr 26H · Gent0–00
- D26 Dec 25A · Cercle Brugge1–14
- W1 Nov 25A · Zulte Waregem4–14
- D26 Nov 23A · Gent1–13
Zulte Waregem2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W17 Jan 26H · Genk2–12
- L1 Nov 25H · Union St. Gilloise1–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise1 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem1 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
7
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
