UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs Play-offs Thu, Aug 20 · 18:00 Complex Sportiv Craiova, Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
1–1Full time
Ararat-Armenia
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,761 kmRest days22 · 8.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Universitatea Craiova—%
Draw—%
Ararat-Armenia—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Craiova)

No weather data yet

RefereeNick Walsh
  • Cards per match 4.8
  • Penalties per match 0.27
  • Matches 84

Team strength

Universitatea CraiovaArarat-Armenia
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
22 Current StrengthIn forecast 7
20 AttackIn forecast 8
27 DefenceIn forecast 8
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Universitatea Craiova

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ararat-Armenia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Universitatea CraiovaArarat-Armenia
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.21 xGVia Att/Def —
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.29 Goals minus xGContext —
90% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
10.00 ShotsContext —
3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
38% On target shareContext 50%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext —
54% Box shareContext —
12% ConversionContext 33%
1.67 OffsidesContext —
10.60 Shots allowedContext —
2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
3.80 BlocksContext —
1.25 Goalkeeper savesContext —
56% Save rateContext —
46% PossessionIn forecast —
364 PassesContext —
276 Accurate passesContext —
76% Pass accuracyContext —
6.81 Team ratingContext —
15.80 FoulsContext —
13.40 Fouls sufferedContext —
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Universitatea Craiova
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Ararat-Armenia
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,761 km4,898 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Universitatea Craiova Ararat-Armenia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match22UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 29 Jul8.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,761 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km4,898 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Universitatea Craiova Confirmed XI
3-4-3
21I. Popescu(G)
6V. Screciu 28A. Rus 3O. Romanchuk
11N. Bancu 20A. Cicâldău 5A. Mekvabishvili 17C. Mora
10Ș. Baiaram 9A. Al Hamlawi 30D. Matei
Ararat-Armenia Confirmed XI
4-3-3
98João Bravim(G)
16E. Grigoryan 47A. Malis 43Bruno Wilson 3J. Julio
19K. Muradyan 70Benny 2Hugo Oliveira
11Z. Banjaqui 91Sandro Lima 77A. Serobyan

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Universitatea Craiova Absences are shown before kick-off
Ararat-Armenia Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Universitatea Craiova · Home No home games yet this season.
Ararat-Armenia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Universitatea CraiovaArarat-ArmeniaForecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals ——
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 ——
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored ——
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00
Universitatea CraiovaArarat-ArmeniaForecast
Scored per game 1.001.50
Conceded per game 1.501.33
Match goals 2.502.83
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%17%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 0%33%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games26

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Universitatea CraiovaArarat-ArmeniaLeague
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——9.33
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards——
Opponent cards——
Match total——4.33
Over 3.5——
Over 4.5——
Universitatea CraiovaArarat-ArmeniaLeague
Corners
Corners won2.405.50
Corners conceded4.607.00
Match total7.0012.509.33
Over 8.520% 1/550% 1/2
Over 9.520% 1/550% 1/2
Over 10.520% 1/550% 1/2
Cards
Cards2.401.80
Opponent cards2.902.80
Match total5.304.604.33
Over 3.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nick Walsh 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.57league 4.00
Red cards0.23league 0.33
Cards 5+52%league 67%
Fouls25.0league 27.7
Penalties0.27league 0.67
Home wins49%league 33%
Universitatea Craiova

No previous matches with this referee.

Ararat-Armenia

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Universitatea Craiova
No complete event data.
Ararat-Armenia
No complete event data.
Universitatea Craiova10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
5 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 3 76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1 3 0-15
4 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.