Universitatea Craiova
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Wed, Jul 29 · 18:30
Complex Sportiv Craiova, Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
20th · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg0–1
2–2Full time
Levski Sofia
2nd · 7 pts · 3 played
DWW
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel184 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Universitatea Craiova—%
Draw—%
Levski Sofia—%
Weather (Craiova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 48
Team strength
Universitatea CraiovaLevski Sofia
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
20
AttackIn forecast
24
27
DefenceIn forecast
26
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevski Sofia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Universitatea CraiovaLevski Sofia
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
67%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
25%
On target shareContext
33%
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
25%
ConversionContext
33%
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.13
ShotsContext
10.00
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
36%
On target shareContext
25%
6.29
Shots in the boxContext
4.00
58%
Box shareContext
38%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
—
12.50
Shots allowedContext
9.75
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
4.57
BlocksContext
1.67
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
50%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
362
PassesContext
441
279
Accurate passesContext
365
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.50
16.71
FoulsContext
11.00
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Universitatea Craiova
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km368 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Levski Sofia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel184 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Universitatea Craiova |
Levski Sofia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 22 Jul | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 22 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 184 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 368 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Universitatea Craiova
Confirmed XI
21I. Popescu(G)
6V. Screciu
24N. Stevanović
28A. Rus
11N. Bancu
20A. Cicâldău
5A. Mekvabishvili
17C. Mora
10Ș. Baiaram
7S. Nsimba
30D. Matei
Levski Sofia
Confirmed XI
92S. Vutsov(G)
3Maicon
31N. Serafimov
50K. Dimitrov
21Aldair
35Serginho
19E. El Moubarik
47A. Bouras
17Everton Bala
7Reinaldo
11A. Oko-Flex
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Universitatea Craiova
Absences are shown before kick-off
Levski Sofia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Universitatea Craiova · Home
No home games yet this season.
Levski Sofia · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Universitatea Craiova wins0 draws1 Levski Sofia wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 22 Jul 2026Levski Sofia1–0Universitatea Craiova
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Universitatea Craiova | Levski Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 3 |
| Universitatea Craiova | Levski Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Universitatea Craiova | Levski Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 9.00 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.66 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Universitatea Craiova | Levski Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.43 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.43 | 7.25 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.77league 4.25
Red cards0.29league 0.27
Cards 5+63%league 41%
Fouls23.6league 26.3
Penalties0.23league 0.33
Home wins54%league 49%
Universitatea CraiovaNo previous matches with this referee.
Levski SofiaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Universitatea Craiova3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Levski Sofia3 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Universitatea Craiova10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Levski Sofia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.