Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were clear favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 16). Utrecht had 7 days of rest, Excelsior 7.8 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Utrecht65%
Draw21%
Excelsior14%
Utrecht65%
Draw21%
Excelsior14%
Utrecht65%
Draw21%
Excelsior14%
Utrecht58%
Draw23%
Excelsior19%
Utrecht65%
Draw21%
Excelsior14%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 43
Team strength
Utrecht
Excelsior
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
32
AttackIn forecast
21
31
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtExcelsior
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.55
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
19.50
ShotsContext
8.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
47%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
72%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
—
OffsidesContext
—
12.50
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
9.00
4.00
BlocksContext
2.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
75%
Save rateContext
56%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
411
PassesContext
347
341
Accurate passesContext
260
83%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.52
10.50
FoulsContext
15.50
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.75
ShotsContext
10.10
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
35%
On target shareContext
43%
11.29
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
65%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.38
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.60
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.63
BlocksContext
3.56
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
79%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
381
PassesContext
392
309
Accurate passesContext
297
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.17
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.00
FoulsContext
9.30
10.13
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Excelsior
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel48 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 96 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
40M. Didden
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
7V. Jensen
15A. Blake
9D. Min
22Miguel Rodríguez
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
16C. Raatsie(G)
12A. Zagré
5S. Henderikx
4C. Widell
17Nolan Martens
6A. Carlén
10N. Naujoks
11G. de Regt
23I. Yegoian
30D. Sanches Fernandes
29M. van Duinen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Excelsior+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Excelsior · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Utrecht wins2 draws0 Excelsior wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 Jan 2024Excelsior1–1Utrecht
- 12 Nov 2023Utrecht2–2Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.00 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Utrecht | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.00 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.00 | 10.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.00 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Utrecht | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.43 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.57 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.70 | 10.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.20 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 3.36
Red cards0.19league 0.14
Cards 5+30%league 32%
Fouls22.5league 21.8
Penalties0.23league 0.14
Home wins49%league 50%
Utrecht5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D1 Feb 25A · PEC Zwolle3–30
- W3 Nov 24A · Sparta Rotterdam4–11
- W21 Sep 24H · Willem II3–22
- D21 Jan 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–12
- W26 Nov 23A · Sparta Rotterdam2–13
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D7 Oct 23A · Vitesse0–00
- L2 Sep 23A · Heracles1–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Excelsior2 games · scored 1 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 21 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
61-75
4
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
2
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
