Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Utrecht had 6.9 days of rest, Twente 6.8 and had to travel 122 km.
Away travel122 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d3 · 1
Utrecht45%
Draw26%
Twente29%
Utrecht45%
Draw27%
Twente28%
Utrecht45%
Draw26%
Twente29%
Utrecht37%
Draw27%
Twente36%
Utrecht45%
Draw27%
Twente29%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 66
Team strength
Utrecht
Twente
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
32
AttackIn forecast
41
31
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtTwente
1.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
86%
Scored inContext
71%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.57
ShotsContext
16.64
5.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.71
35%
On target shareContext
34%
9.86
Shots in the boxContext
10.43
67%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.56
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.14
Shots allowedContext
9.93
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.69
3.73
BlocksContext
3.14
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.23
68%
Save rateContext
60%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
414
PassesContext
454
333
Accurate passesContext
369
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.21
FoulsContext
11.79
10.64
Fouls sufferedContext
9.93
1.21
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.90
ShotsContext
16.20
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
31%
On target shareContext
36%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
60%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.30
Shots allowedContext
8.90
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.13
BlocksContext
2.50
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
70%
Save rateContext
57%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
365
PassesContext
453
288
Accurate passesContext
373
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.80
FoulsContext
11.00
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,952 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Twente
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel122 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 122 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,952 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
10Y. Cathline
7V. Jensen
22Miguel Rodríguez
20D. de Wit
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
23S. Lemkin
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
10S. Lammers
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Twente+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
2.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 2.29
- Conceded
- 0.86
Twente · Away
1.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-2
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Ajax | W 2–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Groningen | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 4–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 1–2 A | W 5–1 A |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 20 of 36 · 1.67 per game | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Utrecht wins1 draws1 Twente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 11 May 2025Twente2–0Utrecht
- 1 Sep 2024Utrecht2–1Twente
- 18 Feb 2024Twente0–1Utrecht
- 5 Nov 2023Utrecht1–1Twente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.79 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.93 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Utrecht | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.62 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 8.62 | 7.93 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 5/13 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 4/13 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.21 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 2.92 | 4.21 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 6/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 7% 1/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Utrecht | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 7.50 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.90 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.35
Red cards0.20league 0.23
Cards 5+35%league 33%
Fouls20.2league 22.0
Penalties0.21league 0.28
Home wins36%league 48%
Utrecht8 with this referee
Record5-1-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L17 Aug 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–23
- W25 Apr 25A · Waalwijk4–02
- W9 Mar 25A · Willem II3–22
- D24 Jan 25A · Heracles1–12
- W8 Dec 24A · Almere City FC3–13
Twente6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W5 Oct 25H · Heracles2–11
- L14 May 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–31
- D10 Nov 24H · Ajax2–21
- W10 Aug 24A · NEC Nijmegen2–10
- D28 Jan 24A · Feyenoord0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht14 games · scored 25 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Twente14 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
7
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
6
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
6
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
7
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
