Valencia vs Atletico Madrid – 2 May 2026

La Liga Gameweek 34 Sat, May 2 · 15:15 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 12th · 39 pts · 33 played WLLDW

0–2Full time

Atletico Madrid 4th · 60 pts · 33 played LLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Valencia. Valencia had 6.9 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 6.8 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Valencia38%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid36%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.38

Valencia27%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.58

Valencia36%

Draw27%

Atletico Madrid38%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.42

Valencia31%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid43%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.55

Valencia39%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid36%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.48

Over 2.5 53% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 42

Team strength

Valencia

Atletico Madrid

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

39 AttackIn forecast 82

52 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Atletico Madrid

1.12 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.45 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.12

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

76% Scored inContext 88%

24% Clean sheetsContext 36%

11.36 ShotsContext 12.67

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.12

28% On target shareContext 40%

7.52 Shots in the boxContext 8.84

63% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.52

11.45 Shots allowedContext 10.88

4.28 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63

2.90 BlocksContext 2.71

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.69

68% Save rateContext 71%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

403 PassesContext 504

331 Accurate passesContext 432

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.21 FoulsContext 10.85

11.58 Fouls sufferedContext 9.45

1.79 Yellow cardsContext 2.15

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

80% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.20 ShotsContext 11.50

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

30% On target shareContext 35%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.22

65% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.10 Shots allowedContext 13.80

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

2.22 BlocksContext 3.40

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.78

74% Save rateContext 74%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

397 PassesContext 431

330 Accurate passesContext 360

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.90 FoulsContext 11.30

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km520 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel302 km704 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr	6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	520 km	704 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 18Pepelu 5César Tárrega 20R. Saravia

23F. Ugrinic 2G. Rodríguez 8Javi Guerra 11Luis Rioja

6U. Sadiq 17L. Ramazani

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-5-1

1J. Musso(G)

34Julio Díaz 15C. Lenglet 24R. Le Normand 32Javier Boñar

11T. Almada 21O. Vargas 47J. Morcillo 4Rodrigo Mendoza 16N. Molina

29Rayane Belaid

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia+1.8 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Atletico Madrid-1.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 1.63points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 7-5-4
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 1.19

Atletico Madrid · Away 1.06points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-7
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.31

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Atletico Madrid
Girona	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	W 3–0 A
Mallorca	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Elche	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Celta Vigo	L 2–3 HL 1–4 A	D 1–1 A
Sevilla	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 AW 3–0 H
Oviedo	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H
Alaves	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Osasuna	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Villarreal	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	W 2–0 H
Levante	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H
Real Madrid	L 0–2 HL 0–4 A	L 2–3 AW 5–2 H
Real Betis	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 HW 2–0 A
Espanyol	W 3–2 HD 2–2 A	W 4–2 HL 1–2 A
Getafe	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	L 0–3 AW 3–2 H
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	W 3–2 HL 0–1 A
Barcelona	L 0–6 A	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A
Points	39 of 96 · 1.22 per game	57 of 96 · 1.78 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

1 Valencia wins1 draws8 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.30 Over 2.580% Both scored40% Clean sheets10% · 50%

13 Dec 2025Atletico Madrid2–1Valencia
22 Feb 2025Valencia0–3Atletico Madrid
15 Sep 2024Atletico Madrid3–0Valencia
28 Jan 2024Atletico Madrid2–0Valencia
16 Sep 2023Valencia3–0Atletico Madrid
18 Mar 2023Atletico Madrid3–0Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.12	1.70
Conceded per game	1.45	1.12
Match goals	2.58	2.82	2.81
Over 1.5	79%	76%
Over 2.5	42%	52%	53%
Over 3.5	21%	27%
Both teams scored	55%	55%	58%
Clean sheets	24%	36%
Failed to score	24%	12%
Games	33	33

	Valencia	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.90
Match goals	2.50	3.70	2.81
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	53%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.14	6.18
Corners conceded	4.86	4.21
Match total	10.00	10.39	9.58
Over 8.5	66% 19/29	76% 25/33
Over 9.5	52% 15/29	58% 19/33
Over 10.5	52% 15/29	48% 16/33
Cards
Cards	1.82	2.27
Opponent cards	2.36	2.03
Match total	4.18	4.30	4.54
Over 3.5	64% 21/33	64% 21/33
Over 4.5	48% 16/33	42% 14/33

	Valencia	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	4.00
Corners conceded	3.78	5.70
Match total	8.89	9.70	9.58
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.90
Opponent cards	2.50	2.30
Match total	4.20	5.20	4.54
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.36league 4.27

Red cards0.29league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 47%

Fouls25.0league 24.5

Penalties0.21league 0.36

Home wins40%league 49%

Valencia1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W15 Apr 24A · Osasuna1–02

Atletico Madrid5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.2 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

L22 Mar 26A · Real Madrid2–34
W13 Sep 25H · Villarreal2–02
D19 Dec 23H · Getafe3–33
W8 Oct 23H · Real Sociedad2–13
W28 Aug 23A · Rayo Vallecano7–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.