Valencia vs Espanyol – 24 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 21 Sat, Jan 24 · 15:15 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 17th · 20 pts · 20 played LDLDW

3–2Full time

Espanyol 5th · 34 pts · 20 played WWLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Valencia. Valencia had 6.1 days of rest, Espanyol 7.8 and had to travel 295 km.

Away travel295 kmRest days6.1 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Valencia40%

Draw28%

Espanyol32%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.18

Valencia41%

Draw27%

Espanyol32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.24

Valencia41%

Draw29%

Espanyol31%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.12

Valencia33%

Draw28%

Espanyol39%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.33

Valencia40%

Draw27%

Espanyol33%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.31

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 125

Team strength

Valencia

Espanyol

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

39 AttackIn forecast 36

52 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Espanyol

0.95 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.15

1.55 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

75% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 35%

11.05 ShotsContext 12.75

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

26% On target shareContext 34%

7.21 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

62% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.07

11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.05

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.15

3.11 BlocksContext 3.65

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.26

65% Save rateContext 77%

49% PossessionIn forecast 41%

411 PassesContext 344

338 Accurate passesContext 272

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.90 FoulsContext 13.45

11.15 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.85 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

90% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.30 ShotsContext 12.00

2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

22% On target shareContext 29%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

68% Box shareContext 67%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.30 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

2.44 BlocksContext 3.80

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

63% Save rateContext 74%

50% PossessionIn forecast 42%

430 PassesContext 340

359 Accurate passesContext 266

84% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.80 FoulsContext 12.90

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km601 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Espanyol

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel295 km590 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Espanyol
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan	7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	295 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	601 km	590 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

21Jesús Vázquez 3Copete 24E. Cömert 20D. Foulquier

7A. Danjuma 18Pepelu 23F. Ugrinic 11Luis Rioja

15L. Beltrán 9Hugo Duro

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 2Rubén Sánchez

14Ramon Terrats 10Pol Lozano 4Urko González 17Jofre Carreras

11Pere Milla 9R. Fernández Jaén

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Espanyol Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia-1.3 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Espanyol+1.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 1.40points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 3-5-2
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 0.90

Espanyol · Away 1.67points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-2
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 0.89

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Espanyol
Getafe	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 1–0 A
Elche	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Celta Vigo	L 1–4 A	W 1–0 A
Mallorca	D 1–1 H	W 3–2 H
Atletico Madrid	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Sevilla	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Levante	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Real Madrid	L 0–4 A	L 0–2 A
Villarreal	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 H
Alaves	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 A
Girona	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Oviedo	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 A
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 A
Barcelona	L 0–6 A	L 0–2 H
Osasuna	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Points	19 of 57 · 1.00 per game	33 of 57 · 1.74 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 Valencia wins6 draws1 Espanyol wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.57 Over 2.557% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

23 Sep 2025Espanyol2–2Valencia
22 Apr 2025Valencia1–1Espanyol
18 Dec 2024Espanyol1–1Valencia
28 May 2023Valencia2–2Espanyol
2 Oct 2022Espanyol2–2Valencia
14 May 2022Espanyol1–1Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	0.95	1.15
Conceded per game	1.55	1.10
Match goals	2.50	2.25	2.52
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	45%	52%
Clean sheets	25%	35%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	20	20

	Valencia	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	2.40	2.00	2.52
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	30%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	5.35	4.25
Corners conceded	5.24	4.75
Match total	10.59	9.00	9.56
Over 8.5	65% 11/17	45% 9/20
Over 9.5	59% 10/17	40% 8/20
Over 10.5	59% 10/17	35% 7/20
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.00
Opponent cards	2.35	2.60
Match total	4.25	4.60	4.47
Over 3.5	65% 13/20	65% 13/20
Over 4.5	50% 10/20	55% 11/20

	Valencia	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.40
Corners conceded	5.00	5.00
Match total	10.33	9.40	9.56
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.10
Opponent cards	2.60	2.90
Match total	4.60	5.00	4.47
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 125 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.10league 4.19

Red cards0.26league 0.28

Cards 5+59%league 47%

Fouls25.1league 24.5

Penalties0.30league 0.35

Home wins39%league 47%

Valencia11 with this referee

Record4-4-3 Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W29 Aug 25H · Getafe3–03
W21 Sep 24H · Girona2–03
W4 Apr 24A · Granada CF1–01
L27 Sep 23H · Real Sociedad0–14
L25 May 23A · Mallorca0–12

Espanyol10 with this referee

Record3-3-4 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 3 Reds3

L8 Nov 25H · Villarreal0–20
W15 Sep 25H · Mallorca3–23
W4 Apr 25A · Rayo Vallecano4–02
L23 Nov 24A · Girona1–43
L29 Sep 24A · Real Betis0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.