Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Valencia
13th · 42 pts · 35 played
LDWLW
1–1Full time
Rayo Vallecano
10th · 43 pts · 35 played
LWDWD
Our take
Valencia were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Valencia. Valencia had 4.1 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 2.9 and had to travel 302 km.
Away travel302 kmRest days4.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Valencia42%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano30%
Valencia42%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano31%
Valencia42%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano30%
Valencia35%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Valencia43%
Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano30%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.52
- Matches 21
Team strength
ValenciaRayo Vallecano
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
39
AttackIn forecast
61
52
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaRayo Vallecano
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.03
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
74%
Scored inContext
66%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.23
ShotsContext
13.51
3.21
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.51
27%
On target shareContext
33%
7.42
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
63%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.23
OffsidesContext
2.48
11.77
Shots allowedContext
11.74
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.06
3.00
BlocksContext
3.56
3.16
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
69%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
404
PassesContext
410
331
Accurate passesContext
338
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.94
FoulsContext
12.71
11.51
Fouls sufferedContext
11.17
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
12.70
ShotsContext
16.50
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
27%
On target shareContext
33%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
65%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
3.14
OffsidesContext
2.80
11.40
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.00
BlocksContext
3.11
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
76%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
387
PassesContext
364
318
Accurate passesContext
295
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.80
FoulsContext
14.70
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel302 km25 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 10 May | 2.9La Liga 2025-2026, 11 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 302 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 944 km | 25 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
24E. Cömert
5César Tárrega
20R. Saravia
11Luis Rioja
2G. Rodríguez
18Pepelu
16Diego López
8Javi Guerra
9Hugo Duro
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
20I. Balliu
15Gerard Gumbau
23Óscar Valentín
22A. Espino
4Pedro Díaz
21Fran Pérez
11R. Nteka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
1.53points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-5
- Scored
- 1.35
- Conceded
- 1.24
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.88points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-10
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.59
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Girona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Elche | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 2–3 HL 1–4 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 3–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Alaves | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 3–2 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–6 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | D 3–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 41 of 102 · 1.21 per game | 42 of 102 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Valencia wins6 draws2 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game0.78 – 0.89
Over 2.511%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 22%
- 1 Dec 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Valencia
- 19 Apr 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Valencia
- 7 Dec 2024Valencia0–1Rayo Vallecano
- 12 May 2024Valencia0–0Rayo Vallecano
- 19 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano0–1Valencia
- 3 Apr 2023Valencia1–1Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.51 | 2.23 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 37% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 34% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Valencia | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.16 | 4.94 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 10.83 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 20/31 | 77% 27/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 16/31 | 63% 22/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 16/31 | 57% 20/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.17 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 23/35 | 77% 27/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 49% 17/35 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Valencia | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.90 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.70 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.29
Red cards0.48league 0.27
Cards 5+62%league 47%
Fouls25.3league 24.5
Penalties0.52league 0.36
Home wins38%league 48%
Valencia2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Dec 25H · Mallorca1–11
- D19 Apr 25A · Rayo Vallecano1–11
Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D23 Nov 25A · Oviedo0–03
- D19 Apr 25H · Valencia1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia35 games · scored 38 · conceded 50
4
2
0-15
3
7
16-30
2
7
31-45
8
11
46-60
9
10
61-75
12
13
76-90
Rayo Vallecano35 games · scored 36 · conceded 42
2
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
11
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
6
7
61-75
9
12
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
