Valencia vs Real Sociedad – 16 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 16 · 20:30 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia

1–1Full time

Real Sociedad

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Valencia were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Valencia had ? days of rest, Real Sociedad ? and had to travel 447 km.

Away travel447 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Valencia44%

Draw28%

Real Sociedad29%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.12

Valencia44%

Draw27%

Real Sociedad29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Valencia43%

Draw28%

Real Sociedad29%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.12

Valencia36%

Draw28%

Real Sociedad35%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.26

Valencia44%

Draw27%

Real Sociedad29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.19

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 35

Team strength

Valencia

Real Sociedad

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

39 AttackIn forecast 62

52 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Real Sociedad

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

80% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.70 ShotsContext 10.70

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

39% On target shareContext 35%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.11

69% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 9%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.40 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.60 BlocksContext 2.33

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

87% Save rateContext 61%

52% PossessionIn forecast 52%

443 PassesContext 449

366 Accurate passesContext 380

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.40 FoulsContext 13.10

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Sociedad

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel447 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	447 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

14José Gayà 3Copete 5César Tárrega 20D. Foulquier

16Diego López 18Pepelu 8Javi Guerra 11Luis Rioja

9Hugo Duro 19Dani Raba

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 16D. Ćaleta-Car 5Zubeldia 2J. Aramburu

7Barrenetxea 28Pablo Marín 8Beñat Turrientes 14T. Kubo

10Mikel Oyarzabal 23Brais Méndez

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Sociedad Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Real Sociedad-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home No home games yet this season.

Real Sociedad · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Valencia wins4 draws3 Real Sociedad wins

Goals per game0.60 – 0.80 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets50% · 50%

19 Jan 2025Valencia1–0Real Sociedad
28 Sep 2024Real Sociedad3–0Valencia
16 May 2024Real Sociedad1–0Valencia
27 Sep 2023Valencia0–1Real Sociedad
25 Feb 2023Valencia1–0Real Sociedad
6 Nov 2022Real Sociedad1–1Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.56
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	47%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Valencia	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.56
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	47%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.67
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.33
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Valencia	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	6.10
Corners conceded	5.50	4.50
Match total	9.20	10.60	8.67
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	1.60
Match total	4.70	3.50	4.33
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.57league 3.00

Red cards0.31league 1.33

Cards 5+49%league 33%

Fouls24.3league 22.3

Penalties0.20league 0.67

Home wins49%league 33%

Valencia2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L11 Nov 23A · Real Madrid1–53
W11 Aug 23A · Sevilla2–12

Real Sociedad2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L10 May 25A · Atletico Madrid0–41
L25 May 24H · Atletico Madrid0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.