Valencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Valencia were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Real Sociedad. Valencia had 5 days of rest, Real Sociedad 3 and had to travel 447 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel447 kmRest days5 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3
Valencia44%
Draw24%
Real Sociedad31%
Valencia46%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad29%
Valencia45%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad30%
Valencia37%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad38%
Valencia45%
Draw24%
Real Sociedad31%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
Warm
24°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 68%
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 48
Team strength
Valencia
Real Sociedad
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
39
AttackIn forecast
62
52
DefenceIn forecast
48
29
Form indexContext
53
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ValenciaReal Sociedad
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
33%
Scored inContext
50%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
8.67
ShotsContext
12.17
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
27%
On target shareContext
41%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.83
51%
Box shareContext
54%
4%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
14.33
Shots allowedContext
14.83
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
3.50
BlocksContext
3.00
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
70%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
432
PassesContext
484
356
Accurate passesContext
414
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.83
FoulsContext
12.50
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.30
ShotsContext
11.00
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
31%
On target shareContext
40%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
55%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.30
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.22
BlocksContext
3.50
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
71%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
400
PassesContext
477
324
Accurate passesContext
403
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.20
FoulsContext
13.60
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Valencia
LLLLW
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,923 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 29 · 3 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected
Real Sociedad
WDWLL
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel447 km1,143 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Form 53 · 7 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Valencia |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2026-2027, 15 Sep | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 447 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,923 km | 1,143 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 2 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 20.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
12J. de Haas
18Pepelu
24Pablo Maffeo
7A. Danjuma
2G. Rodríguez
33Aaron Mayol
23F. Ugrinic
9Hugo Duro
8Javi Guerra
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
6Jon Martín
34Luken Beitia
2J. Aramburu
11Gonçalo Guedes
18Carlos Soler
4Jon Gorrotxategi
12Job Ochieng
10Mikel Oyarzabal
24L. Sučić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Valencia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Valencia-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Real Sociedad+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Valencia · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Real Sociedad · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Valencia | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
3 Valencia wins4 draws3 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.00
Over 2.520%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 50%
- 17 May 2026Real Sociedad3–4Valencia
- 16 Aug 2025Valencia1–1Real Sociedad
- 19 Jan 2025Valencia1–0Real Sociedad
- 28 Sep 2024Real Sociedad3–0Valencia
- 16 May 2024Real Sociedad1–0Valencia
- 27 Sep 2023Valencia0–1Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Valencia | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.83 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Valencia | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Valencia | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 7.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 11.50 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 5.33 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Valencia | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.40 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.60 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 4.16
Red cards0.27league 0.25
Cards 5+46%league 51%
Fouls24.8league 24.7
Penalties0.25league 0.35
Home wins42%league 46%
Valencia2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L2 May 26H · Atletico Madrid0–21
- W15 Apr 24A · Osasuna1–02
Real Sociedad5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D21 Feb 26H · Oviedo3–32
- W1 Nov 25H · Athletic Club3–21
- L26 Apr 24H · Real Madrid0–13
- L13 Jan 24A · Athletic Club1–24
- L8 Oct 23A · Atletico Madrid1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Valencia6 games · scored 2 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
Real Sociedad6 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
2
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
6
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
